Wintry January 14-16th storm potential.

[EMTime]

There is a very thin swath in north ms that "could/may" get 12".
I'm 52, the most I've ever seen here at one time was 10".

 

[KyloG]

Huntsville seasonal snowfall is 1-1.5 and they looking at 5” ?

 

[Nomanslandva]

I don't remember ever seeing a setup like this. Storm in TN that just does nothing in NC and for the most part not a whole lot in VA... just a strange storm no?

I agree, this is an odd setup. Triad and north may do very well with this though.

 

[Nomanslandva]

Yea, I don't think the RAP is sophisticated enough to realize downsloping is going to kill gpf down here in the valley. I hope I am wrong and we get a few inches but not excited about things as they are right this second.

Well, now that HRRR has continued to trend south overnight, it seems to look better east of the mountains. Will check on NAMs and RGEM after church. ?

 

[KyloG]

Tupelo avg less than 1" snow per season and they looking at 5". This is a fairly historic event for parts of the deep south.

High temps don't get above 30F for several days.

And to think NYC been 2 years since it's seen 1" of snow...unreal.

 

[k0skinne]

For me, just outside the edge. Rooting for our other peeps … looks like a cool storm for many.

On the FFC forecast discussion below I think where you see NE should be NW. (Not meant to sound like a criticism … The FFC folks do a great job!)

FXUS62 KFFC 141136
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
636 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 425 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

The important parts:

-Dry and pleasant today!

-Winter Weather is set to push into the are on Monday night and into
Tuesday. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for NE GA with a
Winter Weather Advisory for the remainder of N GA.

A pleasant mid winter day is on tap for us this afternoon. Mostly
clear skies and dry conditions will make it an ideal day to spend
outside. Winds will be out of the NW at generally less than 8
mph. Overnight lows will be around freezing for much of the CWA.

Tomorrow starts out in much the same way out ahead of a weak trough
in the upper level flow. Highs will be in the low to mid 50s for
much of the day, but temps are expected to drop in the late
afternoon and early evening. Precip changes begin to increase after
10 AM and as cold air pushes in we`ll begin to see a transition from
rain to a wintry mix across most of northern GA with snow and ice
in NE Georgia.

A Winter Storm Warning will go into effect tomorrow at 7AM and run
until 7AM Tuesday. During that time, portions of NE Georgia could
see in excess of two inches of snow and up to a tenth of an inch of
ice.

A Winter Weather Advisory will run during the same time period for
the rest of northern Georgia where new snow totals should be around
an inch or less with the chance for a hundredth of an inch of
ice. A few pockets of heavier snow are possible in the advisory;
especially across the areas of highest elevation. Please continue
to monitor the forecast closely as snow and ice totals are subject
to change as the event gets closer.

Vaughn

 

[WEATHERBOYROY]

I know it could change fast, but I'm not impressed with the southern feed in southeast Texas, which should be showing up on radar by now satellite imagery seems to show a weaker flow than I expected. maybe the system is just a little slower than forecast?

 

[LukeBarrette]

I know it could change fast, but I'm not impressed with the southern feed in southeast Texas, which should be showing up on radar by now satellite imagery seems to show weaker than expected. maybe the system is just a little slower than forecast?

HRRR doesn’t show it yet. I think you’ll be fine

 

[WEATHERBOYROY]

HRRR doesn’t show it yet. I think you’ll be fine

good deal, I was looking at 3k NAM

 

[rburrel2]

Things seem to be trending really good for big frosty land in NC. rgem, gfs, euro, arw, all show accumulating snow there. the arw was especially bullish.

It's becoming clear the SW NC mountains are going to be the jackpot for the storm.

 

[Nerman]

Pretty wild that Chattanooga where my sister lives gets a high of 34 on Monday while Kennesaw, GA where my mom lives is in the mid 50s. I'm sure it's happened before but I don't remember seeing it.

 

[KyloG]

What an awesome storm this will be...4-5" of snow and then almost 1" of sleet mixed in...temps not getting over 30F for several days. Going to be nuts.

 

[JLL1973]

Looks like the general consensus here is a good 4-6 inch snowfall with locally heavier amounts. Going to be interesting where that thin heavy band sets up at.

 

[Shawn]

Reminder in areas like AL, MS, check that DGZ saturation. The 3KM NAM is quite dry for a lot of locations even though it's showing "snow" on the precipitation type maps.

Edit: What this means is you need moisture in the area of the atmosphere that snowflakes form.

 

[Oconeexman]

Reminder in areas like AL, MS, check that DGZ saturation. The 3KM NAM is quite dry for a lot of locations even though it's showing "snow" on the precipitation type maps.

Edit: What this means is you need moisture in the area of the atmosphere that snowflakes form.

Yea I feel like those areas aren't used to virga storms may be sadly let down in this instance. Hopefully not I'm rooting for them sitting on the dry side here.

 

[WSW]

Nice system from northern MS to Maryland

 

[StormStalker]

HRRR doesn’t show it yet. I think you’ll be fine

Yeah, hoping things still come together nicely for a majority of us.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Things seem to be trending really good for big frosty land in NC. rgem, gfs, euro, arw, all show accumulating snow there. the arw was especially bullish.

It's becoming clear the SW NC mountains are going to be the jackpot for the storm.

View attachment 142202

RNK says pretty much nada for frosty land. Lol

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

HRRR 3K 12Z RUN

I live at the lower green dot and work at the upper

Will be working Monday night and Tuesday night

 

[rburrel2]

really nasty trend on the GFS for Mississippi. Congrats Virginia?