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January 11th and 12th Severe Weather

NCSNOW said:
Nothing screams severe like 28 degrees and mega frost as clouds starting to whisp in. Some rain and breezy is all i expect here latter today
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The SPC still has a slight risk basically south and east of I-85. Hard to believe with the amount of frost I scraped off my car this morning.
 
For NC from the Rah NWS AFD and something I'm a little concerned about tonight. So there may not be many "severe" storms here but could still be very impactful

Other weather impacts and hazards include the potential for the
development of strong gradient wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph as the
warm sector spreads north. Additionally, it`s very likely that even
the stronger rain showers will be capable of producing 40 to 50 mph
gusts, which could end up being potentially just as an impactful
given the likely existence of weakened/vulnerable trees and power-
lines from Tuesday`s strong wind event. As such a wind advisory has
been issued for all of central NC for this afternoon through
tonight.
 
Latest mesoscale discussion from BMX. They are still being super cautious as the dynamics are tremendous

A strong dynamic system is currently evolving across Central
Mississippi. We are currently monitoring several factors that
will influence the threat for severe weather over the next several
hours as the convective line enters Central Alabama.

The biggest issue that we are currently dealing with is the large
expansive cold/dry dome over much of the northern two-thirds of
the state. This is in spite of the strong southerly flow that has
intensified over the last several hours. The fast forward speed of
the forcing line will only allow for an hour or two a maximum
instability in the evolving narrow warm sector. This will limit
the severe potential to just ahead of the main convective line and
not necessarily the larger pseudo warm sector well out ahead of
the cold front. While the instability will struggle, the wind
dynamics are intense, with 0 - 1km helicity values near 1000m2s2
and 0 - 3km values near 1400m2s2! Given these values, damaging
winds could easily mix to the surface given any cells that can get
rooted at the surface and maintain and semblance of an updraft.

Considering all of the newer data, my biggest concern at the
moment is the narrow window ahead of the main convective line.
This true warm sector is where the maximum instability will likely
be realized and it could surge as high as 1200J as the main line
races through. This will be limited to the southern half of the
CWA through the midday hours. The actual forcing will be a
limiting factor, however, as the main jet axis continues to head
north away from us as the event translates eastward throughout
the day. Being so, the main convective line will continue to
weaken as it crosses the state, regardless of the
instability/shear surge.

Where all elements converge, and the most dangerous combinations
exist will be in the western counties over the next few hours as
the convection exits Central Mississippi. The tornadic potential
should remain south, near and south of I20, while the potential
for straight-line and gradient damage remains across the north.
 
weatherfide said:
The ceiling was high, but the floor was so much lower. Looks like we are closer to the floor on this one.
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42 degrees as this "line" which is more of scattered storms rolls through. We were closer to an ice event than sever weather here if anything, which shows just how unlikely severe was to begin.
 
ForsythSnow said:
42 degrees as this "line" which is more of scattered storms rolls through. We were closer to an ice event than sever weather here if anything, which shows just how unlikely severe was to begin.
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No "storm" about it. Just rain. No lightning, either. I bet the tops of the clouds are below 20k ft.
 
ForsythSnow said:
42 degrees as this "line" which is more of scattered storms rolls through. We were closer to an ice event than sever weather here if anything, which shows just how unlikely severe was to begin.
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I had a few decently close rumbles of thunder but its hard to get real storms in the mid 40s.
 
Screenshot_20240112-151659.png

...20Z Update...
A shortwave trough continues to push quickly northeastward across
the Mid MS Valley, with its accompanying intense jet streak
stretching from OK/north TX through the TN Valley into the central
Appalachians. Evolution of this shortwave northeastward has lead to
increased displacement between the primary forcing for ascent and
the warm sector, which currently only reaching as far north as
southern AL and southern GA.

Based on 19Z surface analysis, the 56 deg F isodrosotherm runs from
southern MS northeastward into central AL and then back
southeastward across southern and off the far southern SC coast.
Primary convective line extends from east-central AL southwestward
through the western FL Panhandle. Some modest moisture advection is
still anticipated ahead of this line, but displacement from the
primary ascent will keep mid-level temperatures warm, resulting poor
lapse rates and scant buoyancy. Consequently, despite very robust
kinematic fields, updraft strength and duration will remain limited.
Damaging gusts will remain possible, with a low-probability tornado
threat persisting as well, particularly near the warm front across
southern GA.

Some severe potential remains across the Carolinas tonight as well
where limited destabilization is possible ahead of the line. Very
strong vertical shear and intense winds just above the surface
suggest some potential for damaging winds with the line.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Yeah, I walked outside early this morning and was saying to myself "they REALLY think there's a chance of severe weather today?"

Man was it cold. We wound up overshooting the low predicted to boot (ended up at 30 instead of 36) and had a nice frost as well.
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Yes, but this is a huge bust and reputation killer. They presented the threat like it was going to be spring like severe weather outbreak for what turned out to to be a typical southern winter rainy day. Will anyone remember? Are they going to tune out the warnings next time? I'm already fielding calls from friends and family asking me if the forecast is real or not. That tells me people are already very skeptical of the government weather service. It's probably time to privatize it. The most accurate service gets the money.
 
Stormsfury said:
Airmass recovery was nearly impossible I. Such a short time window. Had a warm, unstable airmass been in place for a couple days... Whole different ballgame today.
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All of the hires models indicated this. Why did they discount them? I mean, only the HRRR had any semblance of surface based CAPE and it was confined to the gulf coast, away from the best forcing.
 
weatherfide said:
All of the hires models indicated this. Why did they discount them? I mean, only the HRRR had any semblance of surface based CAPE and it was confined to the gulf coast, away from the best forcing.
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We all were digging deep to find the instability, and saw none. Wind fields were indeed impressive, but we saw we couldn't crap gold from a 6 pack of tacos and burritos.
 
Well the last line is moving through now and it's pathetic. The cold air is still way back in MS. Still five more hours to wait for it. Highest wind gust was 8.5mph. Oh, well, soon I'll be at home in front of a crackly fire, a cold one in hand and a good book in the other.
 
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