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January 11th and 12th Severe Weather

Hpdb301 said:
Crazy A North Alabama school has gone to a virtual day for tomorrow's event? Can't say I support that move with the amount of uncertainty. It seems like they close schools now for the chance of drizzle?
Click to expand...
The Weather Channel is hyping the severe threat like crazy. Everyone I talk to wants to know if schools should close because of the chance for severe weather. I keep checking the hires models and see cool temps at the surface with higher temps aloft and generally lackluster instability around here. It's like crazy town out there.
 
Spartanburg school districts starting to announce closures for tomorrow
 
SPC sticking to their guns. We shall see.

..Gulf Coast States...
A progressive upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward
from the Ark-La-Tex to the Ohio Valley today. This morning, a
north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in
place ahead of the trough across the lower Mississippi Valley. A
line of strong thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and just to
the west of the moist axis at daybreak across eastern Arkansas and
northern Louisiana. This line is forecast to move eastward across
central and northern Mississippi during the mid to late morning.
Peak intensity within this line of strong storms is expected around
15Z, as the core of a 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet moves in from
the west. Damaging wind gusts will be possible along the leading
edge of the line, with some gusts to around 75 mph possible, mainly
associated with organized bowing segments. An isolated tornado
threat is also expected with rotating cells embedded in the line. As
the line of storms moves eastward across the central Gulf Coast
states into weaker instability around midday, the wind-damage threat
should become more isolated. The greatest wind-damage threat is
expected to shift from the central Gulf Coast states southward
toward the central Gulf Coast early this afternoon, as instability
becomes maximized along and near the coast.

...Georgia/Carolinas...
Strong moisture advection will occur today from eastern parts of the
Southeast into the Carolinas, as a fast-moving upper-level trough
moves east-northeastward across the Tennessee Valley. The moist axis
will be located just ahead of the trough, moving eastward from the
central Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas by afternoon.
Instability is forecast to become maximized by late afternoon, as
the line of storms approaches in the stronger instability. The
potential for wind damage is expected to increase somewhat as the
line of storms approaches the stronger instability, from eastern
South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Wind damage will be
moist likely along the more organized part of the line. A tornado
threat could also develop with rotating cells in or ahead of the
line. However, in many areas, instability will remain too weak for a
greater severe threat coverage. The severe threat is expected to
diminish during the early evening, as the upper-level trough outruns
the warm sector.
AL_swody1 (2).pngAL_swody1_TORN.pngAL_swody1_WIND.png
 
Disco this morning from BMX. They are interested in seeing what data from the morning balloon launch will tell them about the environment. They are also clearly concerned about the gradient wind issue.

Well the rain is on our doorstep and beginning to enter into the
northwest as of 2 AM. The strong to severe storms are still well to
our west and north, but will quickly approach the area this morning
after sunrise. Based on the line current position at 2 AM, the rule
of thumb is 12 hours from Birmingham. However, this line should
pick up in speed as a jet begins to work through the region. There
has already been some rapid uptick in storms in Texas/Louisiana
along this line. Based on current projections and analysis it looks
like the line should be east of the MS River by 5 to 6 AM and then
begin to enter our northwest right around 8 AM. This line will be
moving quickly so it should approach the Birmingham metro between 11
AM and Noon and then quickly slide east of the area. The line should
approach the Montgomery metro between 1 and 2 PM, before exiting
central Alabama by 4 PM. Very strong winds will accompany the line
of showers and storms, with the strongest winds, generally north of
a Selma to Alexander City line. The biggest threat for severe weather
will be the strong straight line winds, but a spin up tornado can
not be ruled out with the dynamics that will be in place across the
area. As the line gets closer and the balloon is launched this
morning we will have a better grasp on the setup ahead of the line
and will work on an updated discussion for the event.

Another concern for the day, outside of the storms, will be the
increasing gradient winds across the area ahead and behind the line.
We are still expecting winds of 20 to 30 mph sustained and gusts of
45 to 50 mph to develop. These gusts will not be over a prolonged
period but would be possible on and off through the day. A wind
advisory is in effect in the northwest through 9 PM Friday night.
The southeast is also in a wind advisory, but not for as long
with the low lifting north and east through the day.

Most of the rain will be done by sunset and we will begin to clear
out this evening. With generally fair skies image6 (1).pngovernight we will drop
into the mid 20s to low 30s. High pressure continues to build into
the area on Saturday, with generally sunny skies and highs in the
mid 40s to low 50s.
 
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