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Severe Jan 8-11 2024 System Severe

weatherfide said:
Heavy rain and 40.6 here. Wind is not too high, less than 10 mph.
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Looks like sleet in Dahlonega, so maybe some rare sleetnadoes. Keep your eyes peeled. Much more rare than thundersnow. 41.2 here and dripping. A not so rare dry patch. Did have a tree snap off and blast my chainlink fence in the winds this morning. Fun with chainsaw time this afternoon.
 
dsaur said:
Looks like sleet in Dahlonega, so maybe some rare sleetnadoes. Keep your eyes peeled. Much more rare than thundersnow. 41.2 here and dripping. A not so rare dry patch. Did have a tree snap off and blast my chainlink fence in the winds this morning. Fun with chainsaw time this afternoon.
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Tony, you would love that! Happy New Year buddy.
 
Thanks, pal....I bet pellets at 125 would hurt, lol. My point forecast for tomorrow is 62, and that brings the real spinners into the fore, and kind of leaves the sleetnadoes to mythology. But if my theory of fewer storms upping the ante for historical ones when they do hit...maybe sleetnado could really be a thing. Historic for sure, lol.
 
NWS ATL checking in with update:

Severe Threat:

Very impressive parameter space looks to set up over the CWA during
the early morning hours and into the afternoon on Tuesday. Strong
WAA overnight will allow for two not so great things - the first, it
will keep the boundary layer well mixed, likely preventing any
nocturnal inversion from setting up, and second, will likely help
break down our CAD/wedge in place. Normally I would say the wedge
will win out, but with a 80+ kt jet at 850mb overspreading the
region, that will aid greatly in mixing it out. That being said, the
best winds in that won`t arrive until the morning hours as the line
begins pushing through, so it may take a bit of time for the warm
sector to lift through the CWA. The current SPC outlook reflects
this nicely, showing biggest risks from Columbus to Macon and then
pushing north.

The wind threat will likely be the biggest risk right out. With the
very strong kinematics, mixing down big winds in the strongest
storms won`t take much in the way of instability. QLCS tornadoes
will likely be in play, especially given fish hook look to the
hodographs which give tremendous SRH values of 200-400 m2/s2. The
big question mark is the instability. This has potential to be a
classic HSLC event, but the ability to be fully surface based will
likely be dependent on how quickly and how strong the WAA occurs.
This creates uncertainty in the northern extent, and certainly won`t
rule out seeing some severe weather as far north as the metro if
WAA really gets moving.
 
tractor girl said:
NWS ATL checking in with update:

Severe Threat:

Very impressive parameter space looks to set up over the CWA during
the early morning hours and into the afternoon on Tuesday. Strong
WAA overnight will allow for two not so great things - the first, it
will keep the boundary layer well mixed, likely preventing any
nocturnal inversion from setting up, and second, will likely help
break down our CAD/wedge in place. Normally I would say the wedge
will win out, but with a 80+ kt jet at 850mb overspreading the
region, that will aid greatly in mixing it out. That being said, the
best winds in that won`t arrive until the morning hours as the line
begins pushing through, so it may take a bit of time for the warm
sector to lift through the CWA. The current SPC outlook reflects
this nicely, showing biggest risks from Columbus to Macon and then
pushing north.

The wind threat will likely be the biggest risk right out. With the
very strong kinematics, mixing down big winds in the strongest
storms won`t take much in the way of instability. QLCS tornadoes
will likely be in play, especially given fish hook look to the
hodographs which give tremendous SRH values of 200-400 m2/s2. The
big question mark is the instability. This has potential to be a
classic HSLC event, but the ability to be fully surface based will
likely be dependent on how quickly and how strong the WAA occurs.
This creates uncertainty in the northern extent, and certainly won`t
rule out seeing some severe weather as far north as the metro if
WAA really gets moving.
Click to expand...
This is old from earlier today
 
yeah, their 3:21pm update remains unchanged per the 8:20PM update.

"
.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

Light rain showers currently extend into the CWA from Macon to ATL
and south. No lightning is currently present, however
precipitation coverage will continue to increase through the
overnight hours. Otherwise no significant adjustments to the short
term outlook.

&&"
 
Euro has a 66mph just in Atlanta tomorrow morning. Don’t think that will verify but who knowsC192ADF4-2982-4093-A718-D49E30A337E9.png
 
Warm front is through down here at wilmington. Wind picked up out of the southeast temps skyrocketed. From 4:35am to 5:25am we saw a 16 degree jump in 50 minutes.

There's a 9 degree jump in 5 minutes from 455 to 500
 

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