Nowcast Time:
A) There is no CAD currently when you have SE to SW surface winds.
B) Full day of sun. Right on que as we head toward sunset with opportunity to cool off rapidly, clouds Roll in.
C) Been a while. But be very very weary of Miller B's, least we forget they produce "The Carolina Split". Qpf is always over modeled piedmont,foithills NC . The transfer always causes this region to get robbed.
D) This jump from IL,IN to Carolina Coast is a little futher north than usual. So if Im in VA ,Best shave 30% off those snow accum maps. Same thing,not as pronounced will happen to escarpment piedmont up there.
E) Enough Negative Nancy News. We have DPs in mid to upper teens in NC. If the temps can,could drop at sunset it would help the wetbulbs out a lot. WB runing upper 20s in Triad now from mid 20s at noon. Thanks to worse case timing of the sun.
F) Can we get a front end thump from the finger? Jury is out. Foothills,sw piedmont may have better luck. Triad may get a virga gut punch. We will see. If we do get an hour of sleet,snow . It would have aided the insitu daming and promoted more staying power for the frzng drizzle rain. The rain will be light. So its not gonna gully wash run off.
G] NWFS is gonna be BIG TIME for mtns backside. 48 hours +. Coastal will drag and be forming a little futher south.
H) Compared to usually 0% chance of backside central NC. This storm will actually present that opportunity. I think NE NC has best shot of this to maximize.