Wintry Jan 3-4 2024 System

[WEATHERBOYROY]

Radar and satellite imagery looks a little bit more robust than model forecast, and temps are a definite bust on the cold side of model forecast. Moisture and cold are what we need, so maybe a little bit better shot than the models show now?

 

[Sky86]

It was clear and cold here when I got home from work at 10:30.

 

[Weatherlover92]

27/24

Still clear skies, 6 degrees colder than NWS forecast and 2 degrees colder than TWC’s forecast. Not seeing any mPING reports on the precip in MS/AL right now so most likely virga as expected.

 

[EmersonGA]

20.1 this morning but has crept up to 20.7. Probably doesn't mean anything.

 

[KyloG]

control picking up a light snow in southern GA

 

[winterwx]

For what it’s worth Last 2 hrrr runs moved precipitation shield north and more robust

 

[weatherfide]

20.1 this morning but has crept up to 20.7. Probably doesn't mean anything.

25.7 at my house this morning. One of the coldest of the season, no doubt. Such a shame that the mid to upper levels are so unfavorable for a snow storm.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

25.7 at my house this morning. One of the coldest of the season, no doubt. Such a shame that the mid to upper levels are so unfavorable for a snow storm.

Honestly, The only ingredient missing is >.25 inches of precip. Temps seem just fine for some at least some novelty flakes.

 

[BullCityWx]

closest ground truth I could find is Evergreen, AL with -rn

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

12Z FV3. Wet, but too warm at the surface.

12Z NAM says what ya smoking.

 

[ILMRoss]

sorry yall. tough year so far.

 

[chase5ash]

12Z FV3. Wet, but too warm at the surface.

12Z NAM says what ya smoking.

FV3 might be what representative of North GA from the Birmingham radar later today. Just a ton of virga - already going crazy with that over Mississippi and Alabama

 

[Nerman]

control picking up a light snow in southern GA

View attachment 139847

That's where the moisture is. The 3k NAM fired the warning shot this was unlikely to work out for North GA.

 

[Windergawx]

sorry yall. tough year so far.

thanks coach! we have been played by all models even as we know from recent years footage how this plays out.
but we have heart!

 

[weatherfide]

closest ground truth I could find is Evergreen, AL with -rn

Yes, the important thing to learn is which short range models are best and at what ranges. Right now, RGEM at 36 hours is my favorite, NAM 3K at 24, HRRR at 24 to 36, maybe, and trash the FV3, and all the HRW WRFs.

 

[J.C.]

Yes, the important thing to learn is which short range models are best and at what ranges. Right now, RGEM at 36 hours is my favorite, NAM 3K at 24, HRRR at 24 to 36, maybe, and trash the FV3, and all the HRW WRFs.

RGEM has always been my favorite as well, ever since it nailed the December 7&8th 2017 system.

 

[EmersonGA]

Just a shame. A good blanket of clouds and 29 degrees. It has all of the looks and feels outside but nada.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Virga storm breaking out on northern MS / AL border ?‍

 

[weatherfide]

Virga storm breaking out on northern MS / AL border ?‍

Go rent a Cessna 182 and fly around at 8,000 ft and enjoy!

 

[Makeitsnow]

Just a shame. A good blanket of clouds and 29 degrees. It has all of the looks and feels outside but nada.

Yep...however I will note there is a pretty good slug of precip in southern Alabama heading ne. Not sure it will be enough but something to watch