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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

Coverage here isn’t as good as I hoped for . Still got areas of grass not covered . Melting is definitely happening .
 
I got co-workers over in Vance Co without power as well, reports of a few trees down in Warren County and my cousin posted a pic a few minutes ago of some small pines leaning in the roadway around here.
I saw you got 5” earlier, is that the max accumulation you had up there? Looks like you’re in the jackpot zone, haven’t seen any totals higher than that yet
 
Just never look at the wxbell 10:1 HRRR when HRRRv4 has built in variable snow SLR from 5:1 up to 17:1, and doesn’t translate mixed/sleet to snow. Not that you did, but I think the HRRR product in particular from wxbell got hopes up...
You’re absolutely right, but even the official NWS forecast was 2”, which didn’t happen here at least, and the forecast for the storm a couple weeks ago was 1-2” and we got zilch. Looks like Raleigh and areas east did better, though, I got fringed on the west side, it seems. Unusual. Always coming up with new ways to fail.

Anyways, furious melting is happening now. I’ll be lucky if there’s any evidence left of this by nightfall, even in the shady spots.
 
Coverage here isn’t as good as I hoped for . Still got areas of grass not covered . Melting is definitely happening .
Yeah, that’s what sucks about these rain to snow above freezing storms. The wet areas either never get covered or melt really quickly since the water never freezes since it’s above freezing. Also always hear lots of running water in the gutters while the snow falls since there’s continuous melting going on everywhere, which is unfortunate.

I don’t know what our max accumulation was. When I went to bed we probably had 0.5-0.75” and it was still snowing, though fairly lightly. Maybe we got up to an inch before it quit, though I kind of doubt it.
 
I saw you got 5” earlier, is that the max accumulation you had up there? Looks like you’re in the jackpot zone, haven’t seen any totals higher than that yet
Max I've seen but I sent my cousin a message to see if she took a measurement, about 3 miles north of me. Her snap below looked solid

20210128_090441.jpg
 
I got less than last February's storm. I got an inch which is way less than what the wack job American models forecasted for MBY. And as always, the crazy HRRR way over did it, forecasting 4 inches for me, but I was expecting that to be the case. I certainly know what models to look at going forward. The RGEM and the UKMET was the closest for MBY. Actually, the National Blend of Models was spot on for me at an inch. That's probably what I will pay attention to the most from now on.
 
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So do we count this as a win for the GFS? The totals might have been overblown but it seems to have been the model that was the most consistent showing this storm and a lot of the other models caved to it.
 
So do we count this as a win for the GFS? The totals might have been overblown but it seems to have been the model that was the most consistent showing this storm and a lot of the other models caved to it.
Most definitely. I was the first to pick up on this and the new version seemed the most consistent. As far as overblown totals go thats a product of the limitations in the algorithms used to convert QPF into snow totals not the actual model itself.
 
So do we count this as a win for the GFS? The totals might have been overblown but it seems to have been the model that was the most consistent showing this storm and a lot of the other models caved to it.
GFS showed the storm before others and consistently, if people believe 10:1 snow maps thats on them but the storm did happen. Rates probably about 5:1 to 7:1
 
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