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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

Brick Tamland said:
There were some mix reports here.
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The last 30 minutes of mPings are all rain even up toward Roxboro. I can't find a mix report at the moment on radarscope. Either way we should/hope to/need to start more reports of snow near the va border by midnight and that start sagging south shortly after.
 
SD said:
It'd be nice to actually see some mix reports in the bright band or snow north of it. Until then zzzzz
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39/38 but DP of 33 just across the line at South Hill, Va. Interesting that radar precipitation depiction mode showing snow just just north of me....not sure how accurate that is though
 
If you’re west of 77 it looks bleak. East is still in the game for 1-3” I would think. The further east you are the better your chance for accumulations in. This scenario.
 
RVD said:
Yep this bright banding doesn't really surprise me- correlation coefficient has shown melting slowly approaching for the past hour. Here's a screenshot I took about 30 min ago. It's progressed since then.
View attachment 68686

This is actually pretty consistent with what most mesoscale models show happening IMO- currently we're seeing a big surge in low level cold air advection as the coastal low begins to develop, but the surface is a good 10 degrees warmer than 850mb (before any precipitation). It's gonna take a bit more (i.e. melting) to drive surface temperatures down. I think this is totally on track to see a pretty rapid changeover across the Triangle between 6-7z (1-2am), which is what the HRRR and NAM have both been consistently selling all afternoon.
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I know that this is more of an IMBY post, but how do you feel about the areas along the melting layer, north of I-40 in regards to a changeover?
 
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metwannabe said:
39/38 but DP of 33 just across the line at South Hill, Va. Interesting that radar precipitation depiction mode showing snow just just north of me....not sure how accurate that is though
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I don't think we are that far away but this period of waiting between onset and change over is like watching paint dry and I always get nervous
 
Poimen said:
ok temp is falling much quicker and winds have also picked up quite a bit. 38.8 and the flood lights are on. Let's see what happens.
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Winds picking up here as well, good indication our slp is taking shape.... let's go!
 
SD said:
It'd be nice to actually see some mix reports in the bright band or snow north of it. Until then zzzzz
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That's... not gonna happen for a little bit longer. The above-freezing layer is really shallow- SPC mesoanalysis shows 850mb temps are in the process of rapidly cooling right now. But surface station temps are all in the low 40s across central NC. Temps are steadily dropping at the surface, just not gonna get any mixing until they shave off another 5 degrees or more.
1611807430447.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
I know that this is more of an IMBY post, but how do you feel about the areas along the melting layer, north of I-40 in regards to a changeover?
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It's really a race against the clock for you, I'm afraid to say. I've got my fingers crossed for your area (inc. my family in Hillsborough) but I think the changeover will happen with little to no west-to-east component, and so the further west you are the less time you'll have with precip once changeover occurs. I think the 00z 3km NAM is probably the most reasonable model for thermals; we're keeping good pace with it so far, as best as I can tell.

I think NE NC is pretty obviously in the best position for this system. They'll changeover the quickest relative to precip onset and be most favorably positioned to benefit from the strengthening coastal low.
 
Poimen said:
After a brief pause at 40.5, the temp has resumed falling. 39.9/39.4 with .36 in the bucket. I'm trying to decide if I want to go outside and turn on the flood lights or just go to bed.
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I got em on. Seeing some high glossy clumps in the rain. About 10 feet out from corner of house. So I know its not gutter spray. Booking it toward ground mixed in with other drops.
 
wind/rain is pretty impressive under this, dropped 3 degrees the last 15 minutes 9835D400-B408-4DE3-A97B-0EE07F1D6114.png
 
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