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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

metwannabe said:
Brick it's 42 and raining, transition line nowhere in site yet, you are going to get 4 hrs snow if you're lucky and will lose the first to melting....no way those GFS totals verify. I'll do naked snow dive if I get 6" tonight.
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To be fair models didn't have his area changing until 2 or so. Brick should know by then if its DOA.
 
metwannabe said:
Brick it's 42 and raining, transition line nowhere in site yet, you are going to get 4 hrs snow if you're lucky and will lose the first to melting....no way those GFS totals verify. I'll do naked snow dive if I get 6" tonight.
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Don’t agitate the little fella. I’m nearing an inch of QPF with nothing to show. Actually, you’re still sitting pretty. :)
 
Rain Cold said:
Correc
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Can I get you to commit to the naked snow dive as well? I’ll totally join in here in east wake . I mean honestly I was going to do it without y’all’s encouragement anyways . Something about the rush of the intense cold hitting your naked body just feels refreshing .
 
metwannabe said:
Brick it's 42 and raining, transition line nowhere in site yet, you are going to get 4 hrs snow if you're lucky and will lose the first to melting....no way those GFS totals verify. I'll do naked snow dive if I get 6" tonight.
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We'll see.
 
Little bit of bright banding showing up north of Raleigh.
9cb229b9b7474d79b801969d9818aaa8.gif


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Lickwx said:
Can I get you to commit to the naked snow dive as well? I’ll totally join in here in east wake . I mean honestly I was going to do it without y’all’s encouragement anyways . Something about the rush of the intense cold hitting your naked body just feels refreshing .
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That's a negative ghost rider. I don't think there's much danger in the GFS maps verifying anyway. ?
 
After a brief pause at 40.5, the temp has resumed falling. 39.9/39.4 with .36 in the bucket. I'm trying to decide if I want to go outside and turn on the flood lights or just go to bed.
 
Yep this bright banding doesn't really surprise me- correlation coefficient has shown melting slowly approaching for the past hour. Here's a screenshot I took about 30 min ago. It's progressed since then.
IMG_4131.PNG

This is actually pretty consistent with what most mesoscale models show happening IMO- currently we're seeing a big surge in low level cold air advection as the coastal low begins to develop, but the surface is a good 10 degrees warmer than 850mb (before any precipitation). It's gonna take a bit more (i.e. melting) to drive surface temperatures down. I think this is totally on track to see a pretty rapid changeover across the Triangle between 6-7z (1-2am), which is what the HRRR and NAM have both been consistently selling all afternoon.
 
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