I'm just hoping to run out the clock.
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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
18z Euro was actually better slightly overall than the 12z but I'm getting desperate at this pt
Nomanslandva
Member
Wait, it was not that long ago it was 46 up there. dang. Hope I cool that fast...but know I will not.
TeachLesley
Member
County schools here just went two hour delay. So even when I don’t see any snow here in the morning I will still have that to make me smile. Hard for me to watch it going East of me but good luck to those lucky few.
Still 50 here at 7 pm. And already raining. At what point is it a cold rain. May wait up for that.
Still 50 here at 7 pm. And already raining. At what point is it a cold rain. May wait up for that.
Bannerdude
Member
45/40 in Durham. Was nearly overcast at dusk but clear skies overhead now and noticeably cooling off
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Down to 44 here
Gutter flooder 
to this 
to this
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That warming in sfc temps near initialization is propagating forward in the runs.
Rip
Broken024
Member
Mild rain incoming
May have to make significant downward adjustments to my map.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Greg Fishel posted this on Facebook 30 minutes ago.
SUPPERTIME UPDATE
Still no reason to steer away from my 2-4" forecast, which I adjusted to at 4AM this morning. Snow is spreading eastward across Kentucky, and we still have a long way to go here in the Triangle before snow can even be entertained as a legitimate word in our vocabulary. At 6pm, the RDU airport reported a temperature of 48 with a dew point of 41. That means that if precipitation were to begin falling heavily right now, the coldest we could get would be about 43 or 44. It's still 40 degrees in Washington, D.C. So again, once we start coming under the influence of the strong upper level wave much later this evening, then that vigorous upward motion will begin to produce significant cooling through a deep layer of the atmosphere, and it's then that the word "snow" can not only be entertained, but welcome with open arms! Starting around 10pm this evening, I'll be doing frequent updates, some text, some video and will continue to provide updates until the system pulls away very late tonight. Hope y'all get my drift LOL.
SUPPERTIME UPDATE
Still no reason to steer away from my 2-4" forecast, which I adjusted to at 4AM this morning. Snow is spreading eastward across Kentucky, and we still have a long way to go here in the Triangle before snow can even be entertained as a legitimate word in our vocabulary. At 6pm, the RDU airport reported a temperature of 48 with a dew point of 41. That means that if precipitation were to begin falling heavily right now, the coldest we could get would be about 43 or 44. It's still 40 degrees in Washington, D.C. So again, once we start coming under the influence of the strong upper level wave much later this evening, then that vigorous upward motion will begin to produce significant cooling through a deep layer of the atmosphere, and it's then that the word "snow" can not only be entertained, but welcome with open arms! Starting around 10pm this evening, I'll be doing frequent updates, some text, some video and will continue to provide updates until the system pulls away very late tonight. Hope y'all get my drift LOL.
Avalanche
Member
Looks like rain, especially for northern and eastern Wake.
SouthGarnerSleet
Member
07z has been the steady hour of change to snow for the Wake area. This has been pretty damn consistent. Only the last 5 runs here, but even if you ran a loop of the last 10 runs, it holds.
Might get a lightning shot vs snow lol 
Looks like my thoughts about a big nothing burger are going to be realized.
Every run of the HRRR and most other models have a complete crash of the Column at 2 am for Raleigh ... that has always been my benchmark to look at .. if we get a changeover at 2 we can probably expect around 3 .. any earlier is just gravy ... any later is praying on 4 in/hr rates when the changeover occurs ?
NCSNOW
Member
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This will encourage eveyone. At 5pm it was pc and 49 beech mtn pkwy. Its snowing and ground asphalt ,everything covered up cause of rates right now. So same wx conditions all day as many expierenced and the rain flipped and rates trumped full day solar insulation on asphalt,ground immeaditely.
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SouthGarnerSleet
Member
I tried to tell everyone to temper their enthusiasm even though the models showed high totals. My point about surface temps, soil temps, warm nose, time to changeover to snow, and puddles of water knocking down possible totals was scoffed at by most. Everyone here should have been taking this into account so they wouldn’t be heartbroken. Sorry to say that, but y’all know we ALWAYS find a way to mess these things up.