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Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

I think we have one last shot in February but the rest of January is cooked unless you are in the mountain. Also early March is too far out to tell we shall see. ❄️ ☃️
Please provide support for the statement that, on January 11th, the rest of January is "cooked". Furthermore, what then gives you an idea that we have "one last shot in February"?
One thing that history has proven is not only that early March is too far out, but often NEXT WEEK is too far out to make definitive statements like this. We may not get another flake of snow the rest of the winter, but I will take the way things are shaping up for the rest of January over what we have seen for most of the last 5 or 6 winters.
 
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00z ECM threw a little bone to us in less than 10 days


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A fine balance between too much/not enough cold air and amount of moisture with potential waves along the frontal boundary. EPS trend wasn’t bad though I guess. Need to see how this shakes out going forward.


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NWS used to put out totals map, maybe they've forgotten how since it's been so long. But seriously there has been some confusion and misinformation out there. For instance, Kat Campbell Met over at WRAL posted on FB that Roanoke Rapids was the winner with 3.5", I promise you that's inaccurate. Then the NWS posted this (which also is inaccurate)


Then Brad P posted this which has some official amounts and is probably close to accurate but differed from NWS map 🤷‍♂️

 
NWS used to put out totals map, maybe they've forgotten how since it's been so long. But seriously there has been some confusion and misinformation out there. For instance, Kat Campbell Met over at WRAL posted on FB that Roanoke Rapids was the winner with 3.5", I promise you that's inaccurate. Then the NWS posted this (which also is inaccurate)


Then Brad P posted this which has some official amounts and is probably close to accurate but differed from NWS map 🤷‍♂️


Brad's map is way off for my location, (I wish it was accurate, lol). That 4 inch report in Easley, SC is bogus. 1.5 inches fell there. No one in pickens county got 3 inches except maybe the 3000ft peaks.
 
NWS used to put out totals map, maybe they've forgotten how since it's been so long. But seriously there has been some confusion and misinformation out there. For instance, Kat Campbell Met over at WRAL posted on FB that Roanoke Rapids was the winner with 3.5", I promise you that's inaccurate. Then the NWS posted this (which also is inaccurate)


Then Brad P posted this which has some official amounts and is probably close to accurate but differed from NWS map 🤷‍♂️


I think a couple of NWS RAH's GIS / map guys who really put in the effort have retired / moved on somewhere else. I've commented to them before how much I miss the old maps, but they probably aren't coming back. @Webberweather53 maps are better anyway ;).
 
I think a couple of NWS RAH's GIS / map guys who really put in the effort have retired / moved on somewhere else. I've commented to them before how much I miss the old maps, but they probably aren't coming back. @Webberweather53 maps are better anyway ;).

Thanks! I should finally have enough time today to do some post event analyses for these last 2 storms. Life has been hectic for me lately.
 
so 0-1" for the Birmingham area is accurate ?
Not accurate for city of Ttown and Northport. My FB feed is flooded with pictures of 1.5-3 inches of snow. Pickens county has 2+. Interesting how sharp the cutoff line was. I’m 5 miles off 1-20 in western Tuscaloosa county, west of the river. I had barely a dusting. As soon as my husband crossed the river on Hwy 11, ground was white and got deeper into Tusc county. All my students in Northport had their first true snow day with big snowmen, sledding, etc. it was awesome!!
 
not sure which thread to put it in so pardon me, but what made the cold outbreak so accurately predicted a couple years back in Oklahoma and Texas vs what we’re seeing now. Why was there so much confidence with that outbreak?
 
HRRR has Atlanta getting ZR and Sleet in the morning. Something to monitor today.
Here's what the FFC said about tonight.
FFC:
A weak shortwave trough will track rapidly along the Gulf Coast
during this period. Lift from the trough should promote light rain
showers across central and southern Georgia. Preceding forecasts
have mentioned the potential for patchy light freezing rain in
central Georgia between 2 AM and 10 AM Monday. This risk appears to
be falling as models continue to slow the onset of precipitation and
increase surface temperatures in response to expected cloud cover.
The area under threat is also shrinking, and is now generally
confined to locations south of Newnan, west of Macon and north of
Columbus. Forecaster confidence in the occurrence of any freezing
rain is < 10%. The majority of the rain showers with this event
should occur Monday morning in central Georgia. Total accumulations
in the 0.01 to 0.15 inch range are anticipated.
 
Just for fun at this range, but that HP courtesy of Siberia would have to be a record high pressure that far south, no?
 
Notably the HRRR is verifying too cold. NAM is more realistic honestly for tommorow morning. Here's the highs per the HRRR.
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not sure which thread to put it in so pardon me, but what made the cold outbreak so accurately predicted a couple years back in Oklahoma and Texas vs what we’re seeing now. Why was there so much confidence with that outbreak?

Long story short... Consistency in extreme solutions

You could tell it wasn't your ordinary cold snap

Well have to see if we get that here. It will take several runs showing the same thing
 
You can start to see showers coming off the gulf right now so this may verify..
Gotta love the weather apps on our phones LOL. it's suddenly showing 1-2" of snow late tonight and in the AM LOL. That is not happening.... cloudy at best is my call. Where do these weather apps pull their forecast from? There isn't one model showing snow tonight in ATL.
 
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