Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

[SD]

Have at it

 

[LukeBarrette]

Va peeps are watching closely

 

[Parker]

 

[accu35]

Few more good runs and Alabama will be happy.

 

[Montanasnow30]

I’ll be coming down to Huntsville Alabama today to join the party let’s hope we get some flakes

 

[Parker]

I would love to see this trend well for our state, but those half a foot totals and insane dynamics for the mountains have me in a tempting mood. I have a cabin that is at 2700 feet outside of gatlinburg that I may have to bite the bullet on.

 

[accu35]

12z gefs has some solid back side snow on this run so far. I believe we’re almost at a ULL situation?

 

[malak05]

Well here I am when do I get hurt again?

 

[accu35]

CMC looking moist up so far

 

[Avalanche]

I would love to see this trend well for our state, but those half a foot totals and insane dynamics for the mountains have me in a tempting mood. I have a cabin that is at 2700 feet outside of gatlinburg that I may have to bite the bullet on.

Head on up Hwy 441.

 

[accu35]

 

[Tarheel1]

Where’s the thread for the 31-1st storm???

 

[Snowfan]

Here's the latest GEFS esembles.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

I'll be satisfied if I can get a few novelty flakes from this on the backside....not sure the cold air will rush in fast enough though by the time the moisture is gone.

 

[accu35]

So far trends on 12z models today are juiced up.

 

[HSVweather]

Where’s the thread for the 31-1st storm???

Severe - New Years Severe Weather Event

Decided to start the thread to avoid confusion with Wednesday's threat.

southernwx.com

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Where’s the thread for the 31-1st storm???

Make one

 

[accu35]

Looks like Ms/Al are the “sweet spots” as of now. Outside of the mountains lol

 

[cd2play]

I'll be satisfied if I can get a few novelty flakes from this on the backside....not sure the cold air will rush in fast enough though by the time the moisture is gone.

Hopefully many of us can score our first flizzard of the season with this system.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Stick me anywhere up in Avery county for this one ️

 

[BullCityWx]

The canadian is isothermal except the surface at 96. My sounding shows 35/29 so I would assume that means whatever falls then is snow.

 

[Avalanche]

Stick me anywhere up in Avery county for this one ️

Funny, just talked about Newland being a spot for snow in Avery.

 

[Parker]

I know this setup is not optimal, but I would be happy to just see some flakes flying down this way. Can someone shed some light on exactly what we need to happen for this to trend better for us, and is it even possible?

 

[Storm5]

GEFS is heavily skewed by a few members


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Avalanche]

I know this setup is not optimal, but I would be happy to just see some flakes flying down this way. Can someone shed some light on exactly what we need to happen for this to trend better for us, and is it even possible?

CAD out ahead of the LP that takes a more southerly track? Dont mean to be captain obvious, as I dont really know.

 

[tennessee storm]

Hopefully many of us can score our first flizzard of the season with this system.

Cold chasing moisture. Doubt it less higher elevations

 

[Webberweather53]

This one has a real chance in the coastal plain of NC and into SE VA. Metwannabe in the driver seat

 

[RBR71]

This one has a real chance in the coastal plain of NC and into SE VA. Metwannabe in the driver seat

I take back everything negative I said about you

 

[Ollie Williams]

12z Euro is non-zero.

 

[BullCityWx]

12z Euro is non-zero.
View attachment 99985

It was a close call, about as close as you can be.

 

[Avalanche]

12z Euro is non-zero.
View attachment 99985

Eh. Grasping at straws with oil on our hands. Im with you though, whatever we can muster.

 

[brendan123]

Watching from Se Va… I’d be happy for anything really, It’d be nice to finally see a few flakes

 

[SD]

Euro is fairly close to being a much bigger deal

 

[SNOWMANN]

Funny, just talked about Newland being a spot for snow in Avery.

I'll send pics =)

 

[accu35]

View attachment 99989
View attachment 99990
Euro is fairly close to being a much bigger deal

Even for central Bama?

 

[RBR71]

View attachment 99989
View attachment 99990
Euro is fairly close to being a much bigger deal

Late bloomer- yes please. Seriously that is extremely close ???

 

[SD]

Even for central Bama?

Yes we both need something similar here slightly south and more neutral/ negative tilt.

 

[RBR71]

Yes we both need something similar here slightly south and more neutral/ negative tilt.

Slight south and neutral/negative tilt, very slight, would make for a nice coastal surprise. This going to be fun to watch as it gets inside NAM range

 

[SD]

Slight south and neutral/negative tilt, very slight, would make for a nice coastal surprise. This going to be fun to watch as it gets inside NAM range

You know one of the cams are going to uncork a total weenie run and everyone is going to go bonkers

 

[Parker]

I mean the latest NAM looked like it would bode well for Mississippi eastward if it were able to go out any longer, but I only looked at reflectivity. I just know that just about ALL of our snows here in Alabama are not modeled outside of 84 hours or even showing up for that matter. There is no telling how this will pan out, but its nice to have something to track. I have seen a lot of times in this range where the Euro is lost and then the NAM spits something out for the Euro to catch on 48-54 hours before the storm. We need a lot to go right, but we need that on all of our snows. Hopefully we can start to see some better trends here soon.