Dang. At least you’ll miss out on the heartbreak.
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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs
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LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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Looks a lot like it’s brother the RGEM
Avalanche
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IIRC, isnt this similar to Jan 2018? Moderate surface temps as well were mid 30s.
LovingGulfLows
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CMC doesn't get cold enough here at the 850mb level....0c isotherm retreats north as the system amps up....as is life.
This won't be Feb 26, 2004, only because that had a giant ridge to the north to supress the system. However, I do see some parallels to a ULL system 10 days before our major snowstorm.
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Still not done here
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Meh
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
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Kinda has that Look of a KU event hard to tell tho, but cutoff with a central us ridge and big low right off the PNW
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
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GFS and CMC have the LP In virtually the same spot at the same strength near Darlington.
LovingGulfLows
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GFS is a lot colder though especially aloft. It's surprising because the CMC is usually among the coldest models.
HOLY shi*** I wake up to glorious trends! Since when has this happened to us?! Been speaking all week how minor changes can make this a much bigger deal… I would like models to keep this look obviously you know you have ptsd when your storm is less than 100 hours out and you’re nervous there is still time for this to go to poop .. but good god if I get more snow out of this system than we did all of last year …. I’m going to go bazerk
The UKmET often wants to show snow when it’s like 33 degrees and below as it’s sensitive to BL conditions, but if it trends better at H5, then the trend is definitely very legit
While the slowing trend is good, we don’t want to slow to a point where we get a weak upper level low that lacks cold air, that’s the problem with the UK
Luckily we have good diurnal timing so that can help us out a ton with a problem like this .. plus I’m inclined to think a deform band would overcome a lot of adversity thrown at it
For every 10 "rates and nighttime will have to overcome warm air" storms, only about 1 produces anything appreciable over more than a small area.
Snowman63
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One more thing: if it snows as hard as it depicted, I dont care what your antecedent conditions are .
Yeah, if sfc is 37 degrees, but everything above is below freezing, then it would more than likely fall as heavy wet snow.
euro so far looks a little less favorable at H5
Meanwhile, this has been trending towards a strung out POS for Tarheel1 up there in Dubuque. ?
EdIT: Or Waterloo (wherever he's at now).
EdIT: Or Waterloo (wherever he's at now).
Still better then the 00z run by a decent bit
This run was actually better for @metwannabe 
This is good 
Funny thing is this will all be melted by the later afternoon with temps rising into the low 40s .. a solid event that causes no issues for our first event ? I’ll take it
brendan123
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If trends continue in the right direction, for NE NC and SE VA this could become a considerable event… but I’m not getting my hopes up just yet
iGRXY
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If this continues to slow and progress further southwest, those of us in the upstate can score with some flames on the backside as well. Getting a secondary surface low is going to be critical. It’s very very close right now. Obviously no accumulation but definitely have the possibility to get some flakes flying for an hour or 2.
The SREF ARW is about as favorable as you can get. It slows down enough to get some CAD
I’m hoping my move to a mountain pays off. Not huge elevation difference but better than before. NAM gives me hope!
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Ahhhh why did you show us this
Yeah the SREF ARW is off it’s rocker (this is after the storm lol)
What did it have for Alabama:Miss
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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Imma need some of the crack it’s on
I would say that with temps having to drop during the event, then staying at or slightly above freezing, and (yes) warm grounds most of this will melt on contact or very shortly afterwards. Still, if we get snow, it will be a huge victory for us. The bar is low for me right now.