Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

[Ron Burgundy]

12z NAM.

We really need that SW trend to continue. I think you’re in good shape up your way tho. ITP probably a few flakes as usual but still clinging to hope. The cutoff gradient is brutal.

 

[Parker]

Let me tell y’all a couple things I learned about the HRRR and the NAMS the last few days.......... they suck!

You can take that to whamby or your personal thread.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Starting to notice the HRRR slighty slow/strengthen the northern stream energy/confluence around the Great Lakes

This would result a slightly less amped system/less -tilt, 13z hrrr shows that

 

[Chazwin]

Starting to notice the HRRR slighty slow/strengthen the northern stream energy/confluence around the Great Lakes

This could definitely help put more of NC in the game. Also, looking at these thunderstorms that the HRRR is showing in the 3-5am timeframe for CLT, I can’t help but wonder if those could aid in cooling the column more quickly before that deform band rolls through

 

[Metwannabe]

Yeah that was a decent shift south this late in the game, very least maybe north trend is ova

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It’s barely noticeable, but note the slower northern stream NE of the GLs, and slightly less - tilted system/slightly less amped upper level low (lost a contour)

 

[FallsLake]

This could definitely help put more of NC in the game. Also, looking at these thunderstorms that the HRRR is showing in the 3-5am timeframe for CLT, I can’t help but wonder if those could aid in cooling the column more quickly before that deform band rolls through

And/or some impressive hail/graupel p-types.

 

[Arcc]

Both WRFs raising totals southward. Wow it’s happening.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This could definitely help put more of NC in the game. Also, looking at these thunderstorms that the HRRR is showing in the 3-5am timeframe for CLT, I can’t help but wonder if those could aid in cooling the column more quickly before that deform band rolls through

Possibly and if not there could legitimately be some hail with these thunderstorms, steep mid level lapse rates (7C) and cool mid level temps could do the trick

 

[SNOWMANN]

So should I go to Virginia tomorrow or not ? Roxboro? It’s only 50 minutes away.

You already know the answer...lol Roxboro guna get theirs

 

[Parker]

BMX expands advisories. ?

 

[Parker]

 

[Parker]

Now they are saying up to 2 inches. Let the games begin !!

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I was thinking all the consistent trends for amped and further NW had to stop eventually and at least maybe a slight correction towards go time .. think it has saved some of us in NC from a very unhappy Monday

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CAMs look like how they did at 00z

 

[Arcc]

View attachment 101073

Always crazy they don’t include Coosa and Tallapoosa counties. Cold air always funnels into the northern half of these counties.

 

[HSVweather]

Now they are saying up to 2 inches. Let the games begin !!

 

[LukeBarrette]

Yeah that was a decent shift south this late in the game, very least maybe north trend is ova

View attachment 101068

Dc going from 9 inches to 1.4 inches ?

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

CAMs look like how they did at 00z View attachment 101074View attachment 101075View attachment 101076

Temps also down to around 33 before this deform band moves over areas which should be better at getting a chance at something slushy .. trees will love it