Helps with the moisture and saturation yes, however the bulge is strongly depended on the tilt of the trough and how far NW the precip sheild decides to go. So yes, it helps but only if you get other help if that makes sense.
are you sure this isn't bias you live in raleigh?Final Call
North Carolina
• Raleigh, NC: 1–2” (Overperform)
• Charlotte, NC: Dusting – Trace
• Mooresville, NC: Dusting – Trace
• Monroe, NC: Trace – 1” (Overperform)
Virginia
• Richmond, VA: Trace – 1”
South Carolina
• Jonesville, SC: Flurries at most
• Columbia, SC: Trace (Overperform)
• Augusta, SC: Trace – 0.5” (Overperform)
• Clinton, SC: Flurries at most
• Clover, SC: Flurries at most
Georgia
• Macon, GA: 2–3”
• Thomson, GA: 1–2”
Florida
• Pensacola, FL: Dusting
Alabama
• Dothan, AL: 1–2” (Overperform)
Just drove through it. It was pretty heavy and the car read 39-40 the whole drive on the back roads.
Drying out quick up here. Never got more than a few sprinkles. But definitely blew up just ESE of College Park Bubba Sparxxx.
Yes it did! Raining at a good clip too!
Not at all. Once the front pushes through, that’s the air you have to moisten up.
The rain down your way has driven your temp down to saturation. I'm still at 43.7/33.8. The cold is hanging behind Lookout Mountain currently.
Just for one frame, and it doesn’t even show up on the snowfall map. But… it is trending in our direction. So we’ll have to see as we get closer. In the end that last “NW Trend” call will have to come from nowcasting, not models.
When did the Goofus become a reliable short-range model? I can't see any snow falling let alone accumulating. It's 46 in my backyard right now here in Athens. Looks like some heavy bands of RAIN are heading our way though. And we sure need it.
The cold is moving in from the west, which is exactly why the modeling is forecasting west central and south west Georgia the snowfall by daybreak. Even Athens is delayed from cold air to the north and west. The worst position from cold air intrusion from the north and west are the areas along the Savannah river, Anderson, Oconee, Hart, Stephens, Franklin, etc. They will be the last to cool down, there is even a valley north of Greenville that allows the cold air to spill out from Hendersonville.
Twister would be ancient history if he was around back in Charlie Gertz days at Wyff 4.CJ posted this earlier
It won't, it was never supposed to.
Yeah, you're probably right. But that won't stop me from wishing and probably getting my hopes crushed tomorrow. Oh well
Generally it's also good to moisten the bulb right before the front arrives, especially when you may only have a few hours before the next wave of moisture starts trying to make your own push. Absolutely right about having to saturate that one too. Although DGZ is way better and T/D spreads in general is way better than I personally expected, so I am definitely keeping an eye on things going forward.
Dry slotted hell yeahWell our chance wont be till around after 5 or 6 am. Normally we are screwed in these situations but this setup is a bit different as wind trajectories are not the worst for caa here. If the flow was a bit more northward in the low levels we wouldn't have a chance. Regardless gfs isn't alone in showing increased chances. I have my doubts it will be an inch myself but at least we should see flakes
Did clouds move in? Sometimes, that happens. Radiational cooling before these events can be kind of overrated because of that.
The most interesting part in my opinion about that run was the fact that at 850mb which is right around where the driest air was potentially going to be and cause issues, the latest RAP has much more moist RH values that are further NW and would actually allow snow to reach the ground on the northwest side when compared to earlier short range runs which showed the snow NW but had the very dry air that prevented it
Yep absolutely may have something to do with the DGZ
but we hug. Edit: omg look where it put Macon 
Edit: and Augusta 
Edit: oh my god look where everything is at
