Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

[sackjalding]

45 and light rain here in Atlanta (south Buckhead).

 

[NBAcentel]

00z was a high, when it was near neutrally tilted, as it’s going more + tilt again on the hrrr, which is resulting in warmer/less qpf. Crazy how small differences in tilt equates such a different outcome

 

[RAN]

Final Call



North Carolina

• Raleigh, NC: 1–2” (Overperform)

• Charlotte, NC: Dusting – Trace

• Mooresville, NC: Dusting – Trace

• Monroe, NC: Trace – 1” (Overperform)



Virginia

• Richmond, VA: Trace – 1”



South Carolina

• Jonesville, SC: Flurries at most

• Columbia, SC: Trace (Overperform)

• Augusta, SC: Trace – 0.5” (Overperform)

• Clinton, SC: Flurries at most

• Clover, SC: Flurries at most



Georgia

• Macon, GA: 2–3”

• Thomson, GA: 1–2”



Florida

• Pensacola, FL: Dusting



Alabama

• Dothan, AL: 1–2” (Overperform)

are you sure this isn't bias you live in raleigh?

 

[MSnowAtl]

Raining at the ATL airport!

 

[TheWeatherDriver]

are you sure this isn't bias you live in raleigh?

Yes, a lot of models are hinting at a heavy band towards the end of the event. I think the band will set up to the west of Raleigh and sweep through bringing decent accumulation for the last two hours before moving out!

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

North GA DGZ is are getting moist fast. We'll see what this leads to in the future.

 

[Cbmatt2408]

43 and pouring rain in Hogansville GA! 85 SW of ATL

Just drove through it. It was pretty heavy and the car read 39-40 the whole drive on the back roads.

 

[atlwx]

North GA DGZ is are getting moist fast. We'll see what this leads to in the future.

Drying out quick up here. Never got more than a few sprinkles. But definitely blew up just ESE of College Park Bubba Sparxxx.

 

[MSnowAtl]

Drying out quick up here. Never got more than a few sprinkles. But definitely blew up just ESE of College Park Bubba Sparxxx.

Yes it did! Raining at a good clip too!

 

[Makeitsnow]

Fwiw gfs has increased totals..has the athens area above an inch now. With Atlanta between a half and inch.

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

Thought FV3 was dumb? Well give GFS a try

 

[Psalm 148:8]

When this is all said and done.. going to be very interesting to see which models really a a decent grip..almost go time, and most of us are puzzled as to where the western and eastern most edges set up.

 

[Flo]

I’m an amateur so what is the reason SC gets nothing science wise?

 

[LovingGulfLows]

I'm surprised how heavy the rain is here atm....the column is very moist....wonder if that will play a role here several hours from now.

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

I’m an amateur so what is the reason SC gets nothing science wise?

Well, its kinda funny because this can be a factor that can greatly help you, like in CAD setups or hurt.

Mountains often delay cold air which unless you have a CAD is a huge problem generally

Mountains often take a lot of the moisture (In NW flow events)
etc

 

[Mahomeless]

I'm surprised how heavy the rain is here atm....the column is very moist....wonder if that will play a role here several hours from now.

Not at all. Once the front pushes through, that’s the air you have to moisten up.

 

[EV/WS]

I truly wish everyone across the board the best of luck. For myself it’s going to have to be “Nowcast Time” as I’m off to bed.

 

[weatherfide]

Down to 41.7 now, but dewpoint is 39.9. .05" of rain under very light returns.

 

[HailCore]

03Z RAP says "Watch out, Atlanta"

 

[J.C.]

Down to 41.7 now, but dewpoint is 39.9. .05" of rain under very light returns.

The rain down your way has driven your temp down to saturation. I'm still at 43.7/33.8. The cold is hanging behind Lookout Mountain currently.

 

[xshare]

03Z RAP says "Watch out, Atlanta"
View attachment 184833

Just for one frame, and it doesn’t even show up on the snowfall map. But… it is trending in our direction. So we’ll have to see as we get closer. In the end that last “NW Trend” call will have to come from nowcasting, not models.

 

[tractor girl]

Fwiw gfs has increased totals..has the athens area above an inch now. With Atlanta between a half and inch.

View attachment 184830

When did the Goofus become a reliable short-range model? I can't see any snow falling let alone accumulating. It's 46 in my backyard right now here in Athens. Looks like some heavy bands of RAIN are heading our way though. And we sure need it.

 

[J.C.]

When did the Goofus become a reliable short-range model? I can't see any snow falling let alone accumulating. It's 46 in my backyard right now here in Athens. Looks like some heavy bands of RAIN are heading our way though. And we sure need it.

The cold is moving in from the west, which is exactly why the modeling is forecasting west central and south west Georgia the snowfall by daybreak. Even Athens is delayed from cold air to the north and west. The worst position from cold air intrusion from the north and west are the areas along the Savannah river, Anderson, Oconee, Hart, Stephens, Franklin, etc. They will be the last to cool down, there is even a valley north of Greenville that allows the cold air to spill out from Hendersonville.

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

I’ve gone from 41 at 845 now 46 …. wth? Why are we going backwards? Am I missing something?


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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

CJ posted this earlier

 

[J1C1111]

CJ posted this earlier View attachment 184835

Twister would be ancient history if he was around back in Charlie Gertz days at Wyff 4.

 

[HailCore]

I am done trying to figure out if the dry air will be overcome. I shall use hopium and magical "dry-erase" markers to do everything in my power to make this verify. Below is the 03Z HRRR

03Z RAP says "Watch out, Atlanta"
View attachment 184833

 

[TheWeatherDriver]

YUPPP

 

[Mahomeless]

I am done trying to figure out if the dry air will be overcome. I shall use hopium and magical "dry-erase" markers to do everything in my power to make this verify. Below is the 03Z HRRR

View attachment 184836

It won't, it was never supposed to.

 

[HailCore]

It won't, it was never supposed to.

Yeah, you're probably right. But that won't stop me from wishing and probably getting my hopes crushed tomorrow. Oh well

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

Not at all. Once the front pushes through, that’s the air you have to moisten up.

Generally it's also good to moisten the bulb right before the front arrives, especially when you may only have a few hours before the next wave of moisture starts trying to make your own push. Absolutely right about having to saturate that one too. Although DGZ is way better and T/D spreads in general is way better than I personally expected, so I am definitely keeping an eye on things going forward.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Dry slotted hell yeah

 

[Makeitsnow]

When did the Goofus become a reliable short-range model? I can't see any snow falling let alone accumulating. It's 46 in my backyard right now here in Athens. Looks like some heavy bands of RAIN are heading our way though. And we sure need it.

Well our chance wont be till around after 5 or 6 am. Normally we are screwed in these situations but this setup is a bit different as wind trajectories are not the worst for caa here. If the flow was a bit more northward in the low levels we wouldn't have a chance. Regardless gfs isn't alone in showing increased chances. I have my doubts it will be an inch myself but at least we should see flakes

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

RAP 03z was a little bit of an alarming NW tick. May not mean anything, but definitely gotta keep an eye on that.

 

[superjames1992]

I’ve gone from 41 at 845 now 46 …. wth? Why are we going backwards? Am I missing something?


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Did clouds move in? Sometimes, that happens. Radiational cooling before these events can be kind of overrated because of that.

 

[HailCore]

RAP 03z was a little bit of an alarming NW tick. May not mean anything, but definitely gotta keep an eye on that.

The most interesting part in my opinion about that run was the fact that at 850mb which is right around where the driest air was potentially going to be and cause issues, the latest RAP has much more moist RH values that are further NW and would actually allow snow to reach the ground on the northwest side when compared to earlier short range runs which showed the snow NW but had the very dry air that prevented it

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

The most interesting part in my opinion about that run was the fact that at 850mb which is right around where the driest air was potentially going to be and cause issues, the latest RAP has much more moist RH values that are further NW and would actually allow snow to reach the ground on the northwest side when compared to earlier short range runs which showed the snow NW but had the very dry air that prevented itView attachment 184843

Yep absolutely may have something to do with the DGZ

 

[superjames1992]

Getting our first sprinkles now. 42F.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I fed Chat some prompts and this is the map it made. This is not at all what I told it to do but we hug. Edit: omg look where it put Macon Edit: and Augusta Edit: oh my god look where everything is at

 

[jamesmbryanjr1]

When did the Goofus become a reliable short-range model? I can't see any snow falling let alone accumulating. It's 46 in my backyard right now here in Athens. Looks like some heavy bands of RAIN are heading our way though. And we sure need it.

Yes.


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