Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

[SimeonNC]

My temp is 44.2 and dropping.

 

[bouncycorn]

This experimental nowcasting model seems convinced that there will be at least some precip (dbz>0) in ATL in about 4 hours.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

This experimental nowcasting model seems convinced that there will be at least some precip (dbz>0) in ATL in about 4 hours.
View attachment 184880

Interesting that it models a 50% chance of measurable precipitation as far west as Birmingham.

 

[MSnowAtl]

40f/28 dewpoint...dewpoint are dropping like a rock and the wind is picking up at the ATL airport.

 

[bouncycorn]

Interesting that it models a 50% chance of measurable precipitation as far west as Birmingham.

Yeah I'm not sure how accurate this is, exactly. It is an experimental project that I am working on and hasn't been tested enough yet. So take it as a grain of salt. One thing I will mention, however: this is probability of >0dbz, so not necessarily measurable QPF/precip.

 

[bouncycorn]

34.5F/25.4F here in Dallas, GA

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Yeah I'm not sure how accurate this is, exactly. It is an experimental project that I am working on and hasn't been tested enough yet. So take it as a grain of salt. One thing I will mention, however: this is probability of >0dbz, so not necessarily measurable QPF/precip.

Any recent or upcoming radiosonde data that you may be privy to? Here, midway between Atlanta and Athens, I'm feeling more confident regarding perhaps overperforming to perhaps .10-.20 in the bucket, but the delayed cold, which so often happens out this way, bugs me.

 

[MSnowAtl]

Any recent or upcoming radiosonde data that you may be privy to? Here, midway between Atlanta and Athens, I'm feeling more confident regarding perhaps overperforming to perhaps .10-.20 in the bucket, but the delayed cold, which so often happens out this way, bugs me.

Its amazing that I am not far from you and you are at 40/38 and I am at 39/27. Wow!

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Its amazing that I am not far from you and you are at 40/38 and I am at 39/27. Wow!

Man, some years back we were under a heavy snow warning, and I called home to my wife while working in Snellvile where about 3 inches had fallen, to ask her what it looked like, and we had zilch at the house. CAA is always delayed here.

 

[bouncycorn]

Any recent or upcoming radiosonde data that you may be privy to? Here, midway between Atlanta and Athens, I'm feeling more confident regarding perhaps overperforming to perhaps .10-.20 in the bucket, but the delayed cold, which so often happens out this way, bugs me.

Nah, no radiosonde data.. but looking at a combo of GOES data, radar data in SW AL/SE MS, and observation stations across the area, I'm still not buying any accumulating snow in ATL and probably little-to-none in Between, GA. Even in Mobile, AL, the precip isn't really close to reaching the surface (evaporating at around 1000 ft above the ground). Low levels are supremely dry, so even with additional moisture advecting in aloft, it will take a LOT of virga before we actually see any precipitation reach the surface.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Nah, no radiosonde data.. but looking at a combo of GOES data, radar data in SW AL/SE MS, and observation stations across the area, I'm still not buying any accumulating snow in ATL and probably little-to-none in Between, GA. Even in Mobile, AL, the precip isn't really close to reaching the surface (evaporating at around 1000 ft above the ground). Low levels are supremely dry, so even with additional moisture advecting in aloft, it will take a LOT of virga before we actually see any precipitation reach the surface.

View attachment 184882

Thanks! I really appreciate it. Here's to hoping the radar begins to fill in hard to the west.

 

[bouncycorn]

Thanks! I really appreciate it. Here's to hoping the radar begins to fill in hard to the west.

I truly wish I had a more favorable forecast. There are few things I love more than snow, so this event has been a bummer.
Late Jan looks better, about to make a post in the January thread

 

[superjames1992]

NWS RAH updated their guidance overnight. Seems like a reasonable expectation?





The low end snowfall map is 0" for everyone, so I am not going to bother posting that one, LOL.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

I see that at some point overnight, the FFC added my county (Walton) to the WWA. So, that puts MBY five miles within the winter weather advisory, LMAO.

 

[HailCore]

This band of moisture over south AL is certainly looking juicy for sure, just based on the looks of it, areas further west here in SW AL probably were not expected to see much of this reach the surface, and it looks to be getting closer to the ground. Either way higher reflectivity values than forecasted I believe in this area which looked earlier like more of a 10-15dbz region on HRRR

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

As nice as the composite radar looks, there is much work to do to get something to the ground. Virga galore.

https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOiJsb2NhbCIsImNlbnRlciI6Wy04NC41NjYsMzMuMzYzXSwibG9jYXRpb24iOm51bGwsInpvb20iOjcsImZpbHRlciI6IldTUi04OEQiLCJsYXllciI6InNyX2JyZWYiLCJzdGF0aW9uIjoiS0ZGQyJ9LCJhbmltYXRpbmciOmZhbHNlLCJiYXNlIjoic3RhbmRhcmQiLCJhcnRjYyI6ZmFsc2UsImNvdW50eSI6ZmFsc2UsImN3YSI6ZmFsc2UsInJmYyI6ZmFsc2UsInN0YXRlIjpmYWxzZSwibWVudSI6dHJ1ZSwic2hvcnRGdXNlZE9ubHkiOnRydWUsIm9wYWNpdHkiOnsiYWxlcnRzIjowLjgsImxvY2FsIjowLjYsImxvY2FsU3RhdGlvbnMiOjAuOCwibmF0aW9uYWwiOjAuNn19

 

[jrips27]

Dang. Every CAM lessened snow totals over middle Georgia overnight. Was about to hit the road and head that way but reconsidering if it’s worth it now

 

[HailCore]

As nice as the composite radar looks, there is much work to do to get something to the ground. Virga galore.

https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOiJsb2NhbCIsImNlbnRlciI6Wy04NC41NjYsMzMuMzYzXSwibG9jYXRpb24iOm51bGwsInpvb20iOjcsImZpbHRlciI6IldTUi04OEQiLCJsYXllciI6InNyX2JyZWYiLCJzdGF0aW9uIjoiS0ZGQyJ9LCJhbmltYXRpbmciOmZhbHNlLCJiYXNlIjoic3RhbmRhcmQiLCJhcnRjYyI6ZmFsc2UsImNvdW50eSI6ZmFsc2UsImN3YSI6ZmFsc2UsInJmYyI6ZmFsc2UsInN0YXRlIjpmYWxzZSwibWVudSI6dHJ1ZSwic2hvcnRGdXNlZE9ubHkiOnRydWUsIm9wYWNpdHkiOnsiYWxlcnRzIjowLjgsImxvY2FsIjowLjYsImxvY2FsU3RhdGlvbnMiOjAuOCwibmF0aW9uYWwiOjAuNn19

Looks like the precip is getting closer to the radar beam in Montgomery AL

 

[Brent]

Dang. Every CAM lessened snow totals over middle Georgia overnight. Was about to hit the road and head that way but reconsidering if it’s worth it now

I've been afraid those snow maps were way over blown

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Looks like the precip is getting closer to the radar beam in Montgomery AL

It won't be very long before the back edge of the pass by here. I estimate I have a brief window between 6-8 AM to see a few non-accumulating flakes fly. Sigh.

 

[jrips27]

Decided to just go. It may be an epic fail but heading down

 

[Round Oak Weather]

Definitely losing it on the short ranges. Looking like to much cold chasing moisture

 

[Snowflowxxl]

lol TWC radar and app says it’s snowing here rn. Can confirm it’s very dry

 

[HailCore]

It won't be very long before the back edge of the pass by here. I estimate I have a brief window between 6-8 AM to see a few non-accumulating flakes fly. Sigh.

Honestly after all this I would consider some snowflakes a win. But, the chance is fading fast… need some saturation to happen quick

 

[superjames1992]

41/40 as of 5am here. Having a hard time seeing us cool off enough at the surface to make this party happen, but will keep on hoping…

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Honestly after all this I would consider some snowflakes a win. But, the chance is fading fast… need some saturation to happen quick

Yep. There is nowhere under the returns of interest to us in N. Ga near saturation at the surface, even down to Montgomery. That doesn't mean we can't see some flakes flying shortly, but accumulations are off the table IMO.

 

[Brent]

Well there's this haha

 

[weatherfide]

Yep. There is nowhere under the returns of interest to us in N. Ga near saturation at the surface, even down to Montgomery. That doesn't mean we can't see some flakes flying shortly, but accumulations are off the table IMO.

I'm up for a few minutes to see if we can get anything through the dry layers. Looks like snow is "disappearing" at around 9,000 ft per the KFFC radar. That matches closely with the RAP sounding at 5 am. A new mPing for snow just appeared in Rome, GA but I think it's probably false.

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Toomers Corner - City of Auburn

Flakes flying in Auburn per Toomer’s corner live cam.

 

[HailCore]

I wonder if this is legit? That area is within a band of precip that is closer to the ground. Anyone seeing anything out east yet?

 

[rburrel2]

Flakes flying at toomers corner is a huge positive sign for Atlanta. Hrrr didn’t have precip reaching the far north.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Nothing here yet. I should remain under decent radar returns for another hour or so, so we'll see if I can spot a rogue flake or two.

 

[weatherfide]

Toomers Corner - City of Auburn

Flakes flying in Auburn per Toomer’s corner live cam.

Thank you for this link! That's fun to watch. No snow falling here. 35.8/22.4.

 

[weatherfide]

Toomers Corner - City of Auburn

Flakes flying in Auburn per Toomer’s corner live cam.

Cars are leaving tracks in the snow! People are already out in it! Cool!

 

[rburrel2]

auburn snow at 6am tells me hrrr and rap are too agressive with drying up the upper level precip. The 00z euro is verifying perfectly though on precip. Expect some snow in to Atlanta, Athens, and GSP.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Peachtree base radar is getting mighty close to the ground. We might have something around town soon.

 

[rburrel2]

Nothing here yet. I should remain under decent radar returns for another hour or so, so we'll see if I can spot a rogue flake or two.

Euro says you get yours from 6:30-9:30. No reason to panic yet.

 

[Makeitsnow]

Peachtree base radar is getting mighty close to the ground. We might have something around town soon.

Yep...precip is only 700 feet up and dropping

 

[HailCore]

I am staring into a streetlight and can barely see tiny flakes coming down that are so small I needed to cover the light to see them. I am about 20 miles north of Atlanta

 

[Oconeexman]

auburn snow at 6am tells me hrrr and rap are too agressive with drying up the upper level precip. The 00z euro is verifying perfectly though on precip. Expect some snow in to Atlanta, Athens, and GSP.

Bone dry here..tee off at 730