Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

[weatherfide]

I reached 51 over here as well, but I believe we were forecast 55. The lower dew points are starting to filter in, not that it matters until they get to central Georgia.

Dewpoints in the teens and twenties in central Tennessee are headed our way, it should make the difference in central Georgia by the early morning hours.

View attachment 184740

I reached 53.4 and I'm currently at 50 with a dewpoint of 40. I just don't see how this is going to work out for N. GA. Maybe central GA can score?

 

[NCWeSU]

So theres a 10% chance of getting one inch of snow but only a 30% chance of getting one inch of snow?

 

[Psalm 148:8]

MPing report of sleet in Greenville, GA

It is NOT sleeting in Greenville GA.. I was in Hogansville just a few miles to the northwest and I came through a light rain at 50 degrees. Medium sized drops.. SW to NE orientation.

 

[HailCore]

Plus, 850's are still north of town.


Right- it most certainly is possible. But I looked at the SPC upper air analysis at the time I read the original report and was like no way in hell. Cold enough air to support that at the upper levels ain't even into N GA yet.

I agree with your statement. Didn’t check the mesoanalysis yet. With the onset sleet event in late Nov in TN, the freezing line was as high as 700mb, but the air was very very dry. Judging by the fact that there is drizzle and rain, it probably would be impossible to get a sleet pellet down now as there is nowhere near as much dry air.

 

[Tsappfrog20]

From NWS Raleigh

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Xlhunter3]

Probably won't mean much, but we're already down to 43 here in North Durham after a high of 49. Not a lot of clouds so at least some radiational cooling for a few hours.

 

[SD]

 

[TheBetterDoge]

Light precipitation reaching the ground in Athens GA. Good to see that the column is already saturated here!

 

[tractor girl]

Not that it really matters at this point, but curious when/if that hurricane hunters flight data gets injested… still 00z runs?

Pretty sure they flew early this morning around 3am or so - no point in them going back up this late

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

It's sprinkling here. 57º

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Pretty sure they flew early this morning around 3am or so - no point in them going back up this late

The more data the better!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Man the HRRR is such a tease: continuing to trend northward and slightly NW with the second precip shield, and this time soundings support a small enough dry layer for actual snow to reach the surface in places close to Athens GA and GSPView attachment 184742

That backedge literally is over my backyard while the front lawn is dry.

Anywho, our trough is in its pivot to a more neutral tilt with the tail end now in Central Texas. I'm anxiously waiting to see if the radar can light up over SE Louisiana and South Mississippi later this evening. Doing so increases the likelihood of snowfall further NW in N.Georgia towards morning, IMO

 

[Mahomeless]

Light precipitation reaching the ground in Athens GA. Good to see that the column is already saturated here!

It will dry back out as the front pushes through….need as much precip as you can get after midnight.

 

[Engeo]

 

[Oconeexman]

 

[Oconeexman]

 

[SD]

 

[tractor girl]

Radar shows some light showers but very little of that is reaching the ground. That is my mping report

 

[BIG FROSTY]

My updated forecast: Cloudy with a chance of meatballs. WTHeck man? RNK has lost it. I say it might be 50% chance of chance of rn/sn lows upper 20s where is the moisture when you need it??? Currently 39.8/34 Good luck to all you weather gurus...

 

[KyloG]

Is the NW trend precip done….

 

[vtrap90]

s the NW trend precip done….

View attachment 184770

No.

 

[Webberweather53]

Pretty cool that you can actually see mesolows developing over the upstate of SC on some of the CAMs tomorrow as the low-level flow interacts with the mountains, generating some lee side eddies.

I highlighted a pair of these on the HRRR forecast




This actually helps back-build the precip westward in spite of the downsloping and allows the cold advection catch up more with the precip, increasing the chances for snow around GSP up to CLT

 

[Tsappfrog20]

View attachment 184761

I am encouraged by seeing that our temperature has dropped by about 5° in an hour and a half


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Branch]

Radar seems to be dying off out west a bit. 48 degrees and no precip hitting the ground in Smyrna, ga

 

[Webberweather53]

Pretty cool that you can actually see mesolows developing over the upstate of SC on some of the CAMs tomorrow as the low-level flow interacts with the mountains, generating some lee side eddies.

I highlighted a pair of these on the HRRR forecast

View attachment 184771


This actually helps back-build the precip westward in spite of the downsloping and allows the cold advection catch up more with the precip, increasing the chances for snow around GSP up to CLT

View attachment 184767

View attachment 184768

Giving folks like @Jimmy Hypocracy & @iGRXY some hopium

 

[packfan98]

Is the NW trend precip done….

View attachment 184770

Yeah, I noticed that on most of the 18z runs. I didn’t really dig into the vort maps to
See if we are losing the dig and tilt a bit. I would imagine slight changes at 0z. I’m not sure if it will will be less amped again, or if the upper air features lock in and there will be more precip on the NW flank. 0z will be interesting. I’ll make through the NAM…

 

[jackendrickwx]

Pretty cool that you can actually see mesolows developing over the upstate of SC on some of the CAMs tomorrow as the low-level flow interacts with the mountains, generating some lee side eddies.

I highlighted a pair of these on the HRRR forecast

View attachment 184771


This actually helps back-build the precip westward in spite of the downsloping and allows the cold advection catch up more with the precip, increasing the chances for snow around GSP up to CLT

View attachment 184767

View attachment 184768

 

[Stormsfury]

how did we mess this upView attachment 184720

Easy. Low pressure Transferrence....

 

[Engeo]

I know this is the typical cope, but this also has Charlotte about 4-5 degrees warmer than it actually is at 7 PM.

 

[Stormsfury]

Pretty cool that you can actually see mesolows developing over the upstate of SC on some of the CAMs tomorrow as the low-level flow interacts with the mountains, generating some lee side eddies.

I highlighted a pair of these on the HRRR forecast

View attachment 184771


This actually helps back-build the precip westward in spite of the downsloping and allows the cold advection catch up more with the precip, increasing the chances for snow around GSP up to CLT

View attachment 184767

View attachment 184768

I noted yesterday to someone answering about the warm bubble over SC, and immediately thought of the mesolow chances. Seen this happen before in a setup I believe 2011 days before the Jan 10th-11th. 2011 winter storm. Mesolow locally shot temps up here from 36 to 43 in one hour. Killed any novelty chances then l.

 

[jrips27]

Might head down to Macon tomorrow morning. Went to college at Mercer so would be nice to see it in the snow

 

[FortMillSCWx]

Pretty cool that you can actually see mesolows developing over the upstate of SC on some of the CAMs tomorrow as the low-level flow interacts with the mountains, generating some lee side eddies.

I highlighted a pair of these on the HRRR forecast

View attachment 184771


This actually helps back-build the precip westward in spite of the downsloping and allows the cold advection catch up more with the precip, increasing the chances for snow around GSP up to CLT

View attachment 184767

View attachment 184768

Probs one of your coolest posts. I consider myself an educated hobbyist. I know the ins and outs of general set-ups, but this one..showing microclimate and the perturbations and ripples and how it effects the downstream microclimate is pretty damn cool. Selfishly in CLT I would love it, but regardless...good post!

 

[Oconeexman]

Pretty cool that you can actually see mesolows developing over the upstate of SC on some of the CAMs tomorrow as the low-level flow interacts with the mountains, generating some lee side eddies.

I highlighted a pair of these on the HRRR forecast

View attachment 184771


This actually helps back-build the precip westward in spite of the downsloping and allows the cold advection catch up more with the precip, increasing the chances for snow around GSP up to CLT

View attachment 184767

View attachment 184768

Yea im taking one for the team in Oconee...geez

 

[Mitch West]

NW trend continues. Hopefully you folks in the upstate into the Piedmont can get something.

 

[Webberweather53]

Updated forecast map for this event.

Only real significant change I've made since yesterday is the introduction of rain/snow mix chances down over Charlotte (& of course into the upstate of SC) due to the potential presence of a mesolow there.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

NW trend continues. Hopefully you folks in the upstate into the Piedmont can get something.
View attachment 184775

Biggest ensemble mean yet in the upstate

 

[NCSNOW]

10 degrees to go lol. Need lower DPs to get across the ridge line. 42/35 Asheboro Airport

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

NW trend continues. Hopefully you folks in the upstate into the Piedmont can get something.
View attachment 184775

Globals should be fairly steady now. All eyes turn to the short-range models. Will be watching the mesoscales from here on out.

 

[anc.py]

Is the NW trend precip done….

View attachment 184770

No.

 

[packfan98]

Best looking SREF I’ve seen. By the way, I HATE the SREF. However, it has behaved like several other models today in that as the runs have progressed, models that were not showing snow earlier, is now outputting more snow. I’m not sure if it’s due to dynamic cooling with increased precip or just a cooler column overall. Encouraging at least.