Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

[WolfpackHomer91]

Best looking SREF I’ve seen. By the way, I HATE the SREF. However, it has behaved like several other models today in that as the runs have progressed, models that were not showing snow earlier, is now outputting more snow. I’m not sure if it’s due to dynamic cooling with increased precip or just a cooler column overall. Encouraging at least.
View attachment 184784

Doesn’t this mean more than likely NAM will beef up too? Are they not related. Interested to See NAM thermals for GSP - CLT - GSO I really think someone Along - NW of that line(I-85) may see a surprise 1-2” if it’s gonna happen anywhere Tomm that’s my Call. (Yes I’m a Homer but I actually believe that)


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[scncborderwx]

Keep increasing these rights and might get glory for a lot more folks!

 

[scncborderwx]

Rates*

 

[RBR71]

Best looking SREF I’ve seen. By the way, I HATE the SREF. However, it has behaved like several other models today in that as the runs have progressed, models that were not showing snow earlier, is now outputting more snow. I’m not sure if it’s due to dynamic cooling with increased precip or just a cooler column overall. Encouraging at least.
View attachment 184784

Ticked up and actually ticked SE, NAMs gonna be lit here in a few

 

[GaWx]

Birmingham had light rain at 6PM CST:

BIRMINGHAM LGT RAIN 45 32 60 W7 30.19R TC 7
6HR MIN TEMP: 45; 6HR MAX TEMP: 53; 6HR PCP: TRACE;

This was their forecast that had no mention of rain:

JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BIRMINGHAM AND HOOVER
507 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026

TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

 

[packfan98]

Doesn’t this mean more than likely NAM will beef up too? Are they not related. Interested to See NAM thermals for GSP - CLT - GSO I really think someone Along - NW of that line(I-85) may see a surprise 1-2” if it’s gonna happen anywhere Tomm that’s my Call. (Yes I’m a Homer but I actually believe that)


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NAM was already beefed up precip wise. I’m curious on the westward extension of that heavy precip into the more favorable areas to get snow. Also, it would be great if the column is colder. Last shot to dial everything in before go time.

 

[TigerSnow]

I just don’t see how we overcome the thermals, I don’t see the cold spilling over the mountains in time. We’ve had this scenario before and it does not work out for my area pretty much most of the times. I understand some models have upticked but I don’t think the cold will be here in time.

 

[Parker]

Birmingham had light rain at 6PM CST:

BIRMINGHAM LGT RAIN 45 32 60 W7 30.19R TC 7
6HR MIN TEMP: 45; 6HR MAX TEMP: 53; 6HR PCP: TRACE;

This was their forecast that had no mention of rain:

JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BIRMINGHAM AND HOOVER
507 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026

TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

Can confirm this as I live in Hoover.

 

[Stormsfury]

View attachment 184786Keep increasing these rights and might get glory for a lot more folks!

Snow or no snow, I'll gladly take the beefier rates for drought relief.

 

[packfan98]

View attachment 184786Keep increasing these rights and might get glory for a lot more folks!

Geez, those look like some heavy returns! Throw it a little more west and watch the magic!

 

[Rain Cold]

View attachment 184786Keep increasing these rights and might get glory for a lot more folks!

Whoa let's pump the breaks on the term "glory". Loving the trends of more QPF tho.

Euro going to be hitting the Xanax after taking a huge L on this one.

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

Pretty cool that you can actually see mesolows developing over the upstate of SC on some of the CAMs tomorrow as the low-level flow interacts with the mountains, generating some lee side eddies.

I highlighted a pair of these on the HRRR forecast

View attachment 184771


This actually helps back-build the precip westward in spite of the downsloping and allows the cold advection catch up more with the precip, increasing the chances for snow around GSP up to CLT

View attachment 184767

View attachment 184768

Think this can help down here in toccoa?

 

[anc.py]

Whoa let's pump the breaks on the term "glory". Loving the trends of more QPF tho.

Euro going to be hitting the Xanax after taking a huge L on this one.

It failed pretty miserably with snow totals — moreso than the G(E)FS shift a few days ago lol

 

[iGRXY]

41 now. Would love to get down to 36-37 by midnight

 

[Mahomeless]

We have settled into the Marriott here in Macon with eager kids. Here’s to hoping for some action in the morning!

 

[Webberweather53]

Updated forecast map for this event.

Only real significant change I've made since yesterday is the introduction of rain/snow mix chances down over Charlotte (& of course into the upstate of SC) due to the potential presence of a mesolow there.

View attachment 184777

Sneaky tough forecast with a lot of things going against snow here. But if snow does occur, it’s probably going to be absolutely ripping because of how warm the boundary layer is and the rates needed to overcome that

 

[BourbonLumberjack]

Sneaky tough forecast with a lot of things going against snow here. But if snow does occur, it’s probably going to be absolutely ripping because of how warm the boundary layer is and the rates needed to overcome that

Always enjoy your insights even if it is pumping the brakes. Hopefully some of us on the forum can catch a few positive surprised

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Can confirm an occasional spit or poot coming from this approaching band

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

54 and raining

 

[TheWeatherDriver]

Updated forecast map for this event.

Only real significant change I've made since yesterday is the introduction of rain/snow mix chances down over Charlotte (& of course into the

Sneaky tough forecast with a lot of things going against snow here. But if snow does occur, it’s probably going to be absolutely ripping because of how warm the boundary layer is and the rates needed to overcome that

I think this thing is going to over preform once that air column cools. You saying cold rain from wake county east is very bold of you. If it checks out I’ll give you brownie points.

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Temperature is already dropped 10° in three hours


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[NoSnowATL]

57 heavy rates ..

 

[NBAcentel]

 

[packfan98]

Man, the 0z hrrr is looking great!

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

View attachment 184796View attachment 184797

Chances of crashing that column are increasing for the CLT


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[NBAcentel]

this is a notable trend

 

[superjames1992]

In the low 40s here now. Expecting a banner NAM run after seeing the 21z SREF.

 

[superjames1992]

this is a notable trend View attachment 184798

Wow! Pretty sure it’s been consistently blanking most of central NC up to this point so that’s pretty crazy.

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

View attachment 184796View attachment 184797

What model has me at 41 now….. bc I am, whichever it is…. That’s the one initializing correctly


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[Tsappfrog20]

this is a notable trend View attachment 184798

Look at the snow breaking out now over the triangle!!


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[CNCsnwfan1210]

this is a notable trend View attachment 184798

A lot more bright banding/lift on the latest run, hopefully there will be a quicker changeover…these are good signs


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[Chazwin]

View attachment 184796View attachment 184797

Just something of note. My temp is down to 45 degrees which is about 4 hours ahead of schedule

 

[SnowmasterATL]

A lot more bright banding/lift on the latest run, hopefully there will be a quicker changeover…these are good signs


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Did it show snow in Atlanta or still a SE tick?

 

[wow]

this is a notable trend View attachment 184798

This might over perform for the I85 corridor. 2" here in Rowan Co will be a winner.

 

[rusrius]

View attachment 184786Keep increasing these rights and might get glory for a lot more folks!

Could some of those heavier returns in the SC Midlands actually be a changeover to sleet?

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

Did it show snow in Atlanta or still a SE tick?

Overall better 850mb moisture but feels like way too little too late. PVA orientation is actually a bit better as well.

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Really good from Jonathan Wall




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[CNCsnwfan1210]

Did it show snow in Atlanta or still a SE tick?

Still SE of the ATL but it’s still ticking NW, hope yall are able to see some flakes


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[Mahomeless]

this is a notable trend View attachment 184798

Can you back that up about 6 hours?

 

[Webberweather53]

I think this thing is going to over preform once that air column cools. You saying cold rain from wake county east is very bold of you. If it checks out I’ll give you brownie points.

I wouldn’t say that’s a very bold forecast especially since you are relying entirely on heavy or very heavy precip to make any snow work from wake county east. Just can’t forecast that with any confidence until it’s nearly happening.