Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

[Stormdoc]

If Florid

how did we mess this upView attachment 184720

If only Florida were not there, that little low in the gulf would have been able to blow up just enough to give us a good snow!

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

As I actually kinda expected after reviewing meso analysis throughout the day. The bulb in Atlanta just was never really as dry as other areas. Appears that some precip is now reaching the ground (Assuming these 5 precip reports at inconsistant times are real, most likely are)

 

[rburrel2]

that NAM run punched CJ in the gut View attachment 184722

We’ve definitely verified warmer this afternoon, unfortunately that didn’t translate to a more robust precip shield with the main wave passage though. It is helping East Tennessee/sw Virginia get snow tonight I think.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Here are some screen shots of the 12z HREF (high res ensemble forecast) from 15z-23z tomorrow.


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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Areas south of Macon under a WSW are currently in the mid 60’s right now. I’m at 50 and about to get rained on. Sick world

 

[egg]

i wish the gfs was a good model

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

32 degree mark is currently north of this line

 

[rburrel2]

Jimmy, there’s sauce for a little low level streamer band tomorrow late morning thanks to a convergence zone around the mountains from the northwest flow. Seems like maybe GSP is going to get the benefit from that. That snowmap bouncycorn posted shows it. At least maybe some mood flakes for ya.

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

32 degree mark is currently north of this line View attachment 184724

Starting to personally like the looks a bit more for both of our areas honestly. Especially after we are now seeing precip reaching the ground across Northern Georgia.

 

[RAN]

HRRR really thinks the carolinas are gonna be too warm. Do we trust it? Does it typically overdo temps in these marginal setups?
H

 

[iGRXY]

micro climate thing but I didn’t get above 44 today. Spartanburg and Greenville got to 51.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

HRRR really thinks the carolinas are gonna be too warm. Do we trust it? Does it typically overdo temps in these marginal setups?
View attachment 184726H

Snow depth is not a useful feature

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I guess I’m riding the RGEM til the wheels fall off it’s us against the world

 

[HailCore]

Starting to personally like the looks a bit more for both of our areas honestly. Especially after we are now seeing precip reaching the ground across Northern Georgia.

I wonder if more moisture in the mid levels is to blame for this. If so, we may be in business for enhanced dynamic cooling? With the early finger band setup, all it would take are blotches of 35-40dbz later tonight and I think those spots could switch to a heavy wet snow as the freezing line is lowered, and (a bit optimistic here) maybe we could get a larger scale version of that to further increase surface cooling/give more areas snow? I will say based on the current virga situation, there looks to be a bit more moisture than modeled and it is in the blossoming stages now with more hours of growth expected.

 

[Makeitsnow]

Starting to personally like the looks a bit more for both of our areas honestly. Especially after we are now seeing precip reaching the ground across Northern Georgia.

Its not surprising..clouds look quite connective right now with a fair bit of low level cumulus here.

For those on the edge watch southern ms/Alabama. Nam doesn't look like it has a good handle on it but hrrr is doing ok.

 

[rburrel2]

The 18z rgem, gfs, gfsai says upstate does get a burst of snow from 7-10am tomorrow morning. Possible dustings but surface temps are still not ideal for stickage. But I think widespread mood flakes are a good bet. A couple hours worth!

 

[egg]

def more moisture than modeled especially on the nw side

 

[weatherfide]

As I actually kinda expected after reviewing meso analysis throughout the day. The bulb in Atlanta just was never really as dry as other areas. Appears that some precip is now reaching the ground (Assuming these 5 precip reports at inconsistant times are real, most likely are)

I just drove through a few sprinkles of rain on the way home on I-85 in Fulton County. A lot of virga out there! It was pretty cool to watch, actually.

 

[superjames1992]

18z GFS with a similar run to 12z. The GFS led the way against all other modeling with last February's storm (which incidentally was also very good for the Triangle and points N/E). Doubt that will repeat, though.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I can live w this

 

[jackendrickwx]

I’m not gonna say #nothappening @Jimmy Hypocracy but I’m not enthused

 

[egg]

I can live w this View attachment 184729

is that a little shelby bullseye i see

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’m not gonna say #nothappening @Jimmy Hypocracy but I’m not enthused

It seems more times than not you get a little forcing along I-85 but if temps aren’t going to cooperate idk

 

[jackendrickwx]

It seems more times than not you get a little forcing along I-85 but if temps aren’t going to cooperate idk

I haven’t looked at how strong it is but low lvl downslope flow can hurt both of those things for 85 corridor. Expecting virga for sure but can it materialize into anything once thermos cooperate? Idk. Asking a lot to me, but again I’m not gonna say absolutely not

 

[Mahomeless]

Macon, GA looking like the place to be….for now. I can confirm very light precip which should help keep things moist as the cold air filters in quickly tonight. I still have a sneaky suspicion that 3-5” happens real close by.

 

[Webberweather53]

Macon, GA looking like the place to be….for now. I can confirm very light precip which should help keep things moist as the cold air filters in quickly tonight. I still have a sneaky suspicion that 3-5” happens real close by.

I think there will be some special few inch max somewhere, just gonna be a matter of finding it

 

[ChattaVOL]

Flakes in southwest Tennessee???


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[Tsappfrog20]

[mention]Webberweather53 [/mention] with clear skies in the RALEIGH area do you think that radiational cooling will help tonight with getting the temperatures lower than what what they think just curious


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[rburrel2]

I haven’t looked at how strong it is but low lvl downslope flow can hurt both of those things for 85 corridor. Expecting virga for sure but can it materialize into anything once thermos cooperate? Idk. Asking a lot to me, but again I’m not gonna say absolutely not

In this case we get the benefit of that low level convergence zone.

 

[weatherfide]

I just drove through a few sprinkles of rain on the way home on I-85 in Fulton County. A lot of virga out there! It was pretty cool to watch, actually.

I might add that the radar returns under these sprinkles were not very impressive, yet some of the precipitation made it to the ground. The dry layer is thin!

 

[Oconeexman]

 

[rburrel2]

The more I dig in to this, the more I think the Lee side in upstate SC can over perform tomorrow morning, lol.

We actually do have good low level stuff going on as a result of the CAA orientation around the mountains. At the same time, we’re on the edge of all the mid and upper level good stuff at the same time.

 

[egg]

View attachment 184739

slightly positive i’d say

 

[J.C.]

micro climate thing but I didn’t get above 44 today. Spartanburg and Greenville got to 51.

I reached 51 over here as well, but I believe we were forecast 55. The lower dew points are starting to filter in, not that it matters until they get to central Georgia.

Dewpoints in the teens and twenties in central Tennessee are headed our way, it should make the difference in central Georgia by the early morning hours.

 

[egg]

The more I dig in to this, the more I think the Lee side in upstate SC can over perform tomorrow morning, lol.

We actually do have good low level stuff going on as a result of the CAA orientation around the mountains. At the same time, we’re on the edge of all the mid and upper level good stuff at the same time.

what about just over the border in shelby

 

[Engeo]

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Plus, 850's are still north of town.

Yeah I can see that being possible, however with dry air and lower wet bulb temps, I don’t see it being out of the realm of possibility. If the air was near saturation, I would be much more skeptical.

Right- it most certainly is possible. But I looked at the SPC upper air analysis at the time I read the original report and was like no way in hell. Cold enough air to support that at the upper levels ain't even into N GA yet.

 

[superjames1992]

Clouds worked out well for us today. Not sure we saw any sunshine today but the clouds are breaking now at sunset to potentially allow for some radiational cooling. Can’t hurt, may not help.

 

[HailCore]

Man the HRRR is such a tease: continuing to trend northward and slightly NW with the second precip shield, and this time soundings support a small enough dry layer for actual snow to reach the surface in places close to Athens GA and GSP

 

[jackendrickwx]

In this case we get the benefit of that low level convergence zone.

View attachment 184736View attachment 184737

Ah well there you go, could be something there. Hope it works out