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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

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He went for it….. 4-6” lol


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theyre getting out ahead of overperformance, thats all guy,s % based for local offices and government agencies to use in case
 
rburrel2 said:
15z SREF did trend towards the model conensus on precip... but still super bullish and NW with the precip shield.

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The SHREF is what triggered the warnings in the Foothills right before the storm in 2017. Once it started increasing QPF it never backed down and increased till go time. Probably a little far out for it to be in the wheelhouse at the moment but I will keep my eye on it at the 24-hour and under mark.
 
SNOWMANN said:
The SHREF is what triggered the warnings in the Foothills right before the storm in 2017. Once it started increasing QPF it never backed down and increased till go time. Probably a little far out for it to be in the wheelhouse at the moment but I will keep my eye on it at the 24-hour and under mark.
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It was the 1st to catch the Crusher in 2000. On an island by itself and then woof 20 hours latter
 
xshare said:
@bouncycorn this is already like a hundred mile+ jump from the previous WeatherNext solution... earlier you were saying that this kind of jump just doesn't happen within 80 hours on WeatherNext/AIFS -- is this event maybe the kind of outlier scenario that these models can struggle with and this is just as surprising to you? Or does this fit with your thinking still?

Just seems totally not what I expected based on your earlier comments.
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Nope, I wouldn't typically expect such a big change from these ensembles inside 80 hours. Seeing as though all EPS, AIFS-ENS, and WeatherNext2 had similar adjustments, and they all initialize from the same data, there must be something in that data ingest that they are seeing now. I *was* wrong, though, when I suggested that such changes would be unlikely.

Doesn't change the fact that none of them show a similar solution as the GFS from yesterday. And doesn't change the fact that the GFS/GEFS have largely trended away from that craziness.

It seems that models are honing in on a solution. I still don't expect Atlanta and north to receive measurable snowfall on Sunday.
 
bouncycorn said:
Nope, I wouldn't typically expect such a big change from these ensembles inside 80 hours. Seeing as though all EPS, AIFS-ENS, and WeatherNext2 had similar adjustments, and they all initialize from the same data, there must be something in that data ingest that they are seeing now. I *was* wrong, though, when I suggested that such changes would be unlikely.

Doesn't change the fact that none of them show a similar solution as the GFS from yesterday. And doesn't change the fact that the GFS/GEFS have largely trended away from that craziness.

It seems that models are honing in on a solution. I still don't expect Atlanta and north to receive measurable snowfall on Sunday.
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I still think it's too early to make a call for the Atlanta area. Not saying you will be wrong but think this still has time to change.
 
imo, we are in a perfect spot low positioning wise atleast for atlanta. I think at this stage a more negative tilt would bring more snow for more people
 
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