Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[PGAWx]

35.8 / 17.6 downtown Raleigh. Looks like things are trending our way in central Wake.

 

[DadOfJax]

hrrr just pivots around and buries the huntsville area View attachment 106290

East central and northeast AL even more so

 

[Metwannabe]

You can toss the globals….hi res models are all that matter.

3k NAM is a hi res model

 

[WxGSO]

Would a Met please chime in and tell us whether these HRRR runs are plausible or not. The model is sticking to it's guns and has been really consistent on that front end thump.

Well, I honestly don't know the biases of the HRRR, but it is a high res model and I think it normally performs well. I would be cautious following its solutions exactly but the trends can't be ignored

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[Zander98al]

@Arcc you have a nice heavy band of snow forecast for your neck of the woods by the HRRR tommorow morning, you better get your coffee ready and snow sled out ?.

 

[CobraMedic]

So I know that James has been calling for no travel issues. So is that still the case for Huntsville if it dumps that much?

 

[jackendrickwx]

34/16 RDU

 

[Stormlover]

noon sunday per HRRR model

 

[bingcrosbyb]

Robert now calling for what we’ve been seeing on the HRRR

“Chaotic mess of snow bands”. An NWS dream I’m sure in Alabama. But it matches up with what the models have been trying to show. Just a wintry mess across parts of Alabama tomorrow south of I-20. Rain, Snow, Kitchen sink.

 

[Zander98al]

noon sunday View attachment 106293

Good grief. Is that the HRRR?

 

[BHS1975]

HRRR still showing the changeover to rain here 2 hrs before the 3k NAM.


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[Drscottsmith]

845pm Duncan SC
40.6/25.3

 

[weatherguy]

It looks like elevation is key for Alabama this time, you can see snow depth is greats to the mountains around Huntsville and NE Alabama as well as along the Cumberland plateau west to Franklin and Colbert counties at around 900+ feet in Elevation, and then as you drop in elevation towards the MS line and TN river it gives no accumulation.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Odd

 

[DadOfJax]

“Chaotic mess of snow bands”. An NWS dream I’m sure in Alabama. But it matches up with what the models have been trying to show. Just a wintry mess across parts of Alabama tomorrow south of I-20. Rain, Snow, Kitchen sink.

Not so much south I20….but along and north for sure.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Snow Depth is not a good tool IMO. I've seen it bust WAY too low several times. In 2017 it had Cobb county at 2 inches and some places got over 10. It thinks a warm ground will eat everything.

Kuchera or regular are the way to go

 

[ALHammerWx]

East central and northeast AL even more so

Agreed. For Etowah county probably Noccalula Falls/Black Creek and points north. Blount county around oneonta/highland lake and points north.

 

[Zander98al]

View attachment 106291

It looks like elevation is key for Alabama this time, you can see snow depth is greats to the mountains around Huntsville and NE Alabama as well as along the Cumberland plateau west to Franklin and Colbert counties at around 900+ feet in Elevation, and then as you drop in elevation towards the MS line and TN river it gives no accumulation.

Which model run is that? It doesn't look like the latest HRRR runs or even 3km nam.

 

[Stormlover]

Good grief. Is that the HRRR?

Yes

 

[Lee County AL]

noon sunday per HRRR model View attachment 106293

Can you share a lower pic or this ?

 

[NE Ga Wx]

It’s getting pretty breezy here and temp is down to 36 but so far haven’t seen anything falling from the sky (liquid or frozen)