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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Jessy89 said:
My thoughts on the front in thump. I think the hrrr is on to something however I’m not buying the high high totals in upstate. I think 2-3 maybe 4 inches is a good prediction north of 85. Because when this snow falls it’s gonna stick right away. Even if it’s snow for only 3 hrs could be snow longer then that. But even 3hrs it wouldn’t take that long to get 2-3 inches.


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Man, I am still skeptical.... I have seen the HRRR lose it right at verification time. However, I will say it has been trending this way all day long. Maybe it does have the right idea. I recall it being right on some other marginal situations. If it is right, NWS/GSP will have to scramble to increase the snow totals in many southern areas.
 
Thanks for posting this information and welcome. It's always good to read about an ultra-high-end bust whether good or bad upstream. It's not every day a weenie reads an AFD such as that! Here's to hoping this storm overperforms for all!
 
Snowflowxxl said:
The HRR is gonna have slight movements from run to run. You will drive yourself crazy overanalyzing it every hour (trust me I know from experience)
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Meh, doesn't really matter at this point....we're close to nowcasting time. I'll be looking out my window tonight and hoping I see snowflakes falling during the heaviest precip.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Man, I am still skeptical.... I have seen the HRRR lose it right at verification time. However, I will say it has been trending this way all day long. Maybe it does have the right idea. I recall it being right on some other marginal situations. If it is right, NWS/GSP will have to scramble to increase the snow totals in many southern areas.
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The thing is GSP has removed pretty much any accumulation in my Location up near Nine Times LOL. Not far from hwy 11 that is really blowing my mind!

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Gonna ride the HRRR and RGEM espeacilly to the end tonight.
Thanks Metwannabe for wind maps. I got a 54,52,56 imby.
Pray thats way off
 
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Something else to watch closely that I mentioned earlier was that above it shows sleet but that sounding is so close to snow that under heavy returns like shown above we're probably either mixing sleet and snow or all snow in reality. Got to watch that stuff closely.
 
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