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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

bingcrosbyb said:
Still seeing P-type issues in areas without the heavy precipitation. Just a Mess since we don’t have a cold airmass in place (*cough cough next week*). Model is trying to resolve cooling, but is struggling. Could easily be all rain In areas shown in blue south of I-20.
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What are P type issues ?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Riding the RGEM to the grave. HRRRR looks very good as well. Transfer is going to be a killer no doubt but when isn’t it. View attachment 106235
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I would caution you that the RGEM is about the worst thing to hang your hat on. It has been plum awful with verification so far for this event.
 
ryan1234 said:
Speaking of GSP they totally removed any mention of snow out of the forecast, at least in Charlotte.
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Really?.. I haven’t pulled the city’s point forecast but that’s surprising. I went back and read their afternoon discussion again and there was actually no mention of any models. All that is said is there is a trend continuing to more ice accrual. I’ve been reading discussions from GSP for as long as I’ve had access to the internet, 25 years or more, and I’ve never known them not mention what short range models are showing as an event is drawing near.
 
Chazwin said:
Do you happen to know how well the 3kNAM does with wind? I know that wind always is overdone on models, but the storm on 1/3 they actually seemed to be fairly accurate.., of course there was a sting jet coming into the backside of that system, and we don’t seem to have anything like that here
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I always say knock 10 or 15 off but yeah they were fairly accurate with that storm. To me they show the potential and if the ingredients line up that's what you could get
 
My thoughts on the front in thump. I think the hrrr is on to something however I’m not buying the high high totals in upstate. I think 2-3 maybe 4 inches is a good prediction north of 85. Because when this snow falls it’s gonna stick right away. Even if it’s snow for only 3 hrs could be snow longer then that. But even 3hrs it wouldn’t take that long to get 2-3 inches.


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