farleydawg792
Member
22z already running again.Every hour out to 18 hours, every six hours out to 48 hours.
22z already running again.Every hour out to 18 hours, every six hours out to 48 hours.
I’m gonna be interested to see if GSP mentions this any during their intermediate discussion later this evening. They didn’t put in anything about the HRRR in the afternoon discussion, but the way other short range models have been moving towards it and the current obs appearing to match it, I don’t really see how it can be discardedInteresting diatribe with Allen Huffman and Webber on Twitter. Discussing the short range models under estimating the CAD temps. Both look to update later based off the latest cooler trends. #CadWins
That's a huge jump especially west end of GA
21Z RAP. Overdone no doubt but trending up
So is it your belief the new bottom 10% will be correct again? At least state your case if you do believe it as many who may lurk on this board may miss that is the bottom 10%. I’m not saying you are wrong, but state your case man.Because this morning the bottom 10% is now the current forecast. So it would make sense to post the updated one in case things trend even icier. I won’t continue this discussion since I made my point and was already told to drop it. I just figured readers wanted to see the new 5pm maps from GSP.
and looking at the observations, winds are now out of the NE throughout central and western NC, so that airmass is being pushed straight to the SW32/10.9 Henderson NC ??
Looks like the ULL is finally making the turn. Looks maybe slightly south of most guidance?Water Vapor Satellite Loop for United States | Tropical Tidbits
United States Water Vapor Satellite Loopwww.tropicaltidbits.com
If you’re referring to “snowmaggedon”, we were well below freezing out of the gate. The issue was getting the moisture far enough north which we did get a good push from that morning from the Gulf which us weather weenies saw coming but the local media downplayed.Correct me if I’m wrong, but in the February 2014 storm, didn’t Birmingham get plastered by the ULL and models weren’t showing it until just a few hours before the event? I seem to remember tracking over on the other board and reading something about 2-4”/hr rates during that.
Just remember- you can’t spell crap without RAP.That's a huge jump especially west end of GA
No… I’m referring to the storm that came in a couple weeks later just before Valentine’s. I do remember the poor job local TV mets in Birmingham and Atlanta did with the late January storm, but the ULL in the February 2014 wasn’t forecast to be nearly as robust as it was for Birmingham… even on the models. As was mentioned the RAP actually caught onto to it, but was disregarded… that ULL would move up the I-85 corridor about 12 hours later and added on 8-12”+ in parts of western NC on top of what had fallen the day beforeIf you’re referring to “snowmaggedon”, we were well below freezing out of the gate. The issue was getting the moisture far enough north which we did get a good push from that morning from the Gulf which us weather weenies saw coming but the local media downplayed.
What was most egregious was the local “on air” mets didn’t really even give the heads up of the other distinct possibility that we could get that push thus when it happened it was a mess and caught many totally off guard. But again we were well below freezing the whole time in that storm so it’s a bit different from this storm.
holy cow. huge for my neck of the woods. I'd love to hear input regarding this model.That's a huge jump especially west end of GA
man that’s a freaking awesome trend. Let’s keep it going.What a great trend in the last several Hrrr runs. These are at 1:00 AM.
Old 16z run:
New 22z run
What a great trend in the last several Hrrr runs. These are at 1:00 AM.
Old 16z run:View attachment 106208
New 22z run:View attachment 106209