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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

View attachment 106074

My rough estimate of current center of system to NAM depiction
It does look a little WSW of this forecast position.
nam3km_z500_vort_seus_10.png
 
Rare Moderate Risk issued for NC is close enough to the following cities (Mooresville, High Point, Asheboro) to take this serious for long power outages. It could easily extend into west Cary, Greensboro, Winston-Salem too.
 
Rare Moderate Risk issued for NC is close enough to the following cities (Mooresville, High Point, Asheboro) to take this serious for long power outages. It could easily extend into west Cary, Greensboro, Winston-Salem too.
Well, crap! That's not what I want to see or hear. I'm hoping that it will be cold enough for mainly sleet and not freezing rain, at least in my local area north of Greensboro

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That dew point has dropped a decent bit in central Alabama spc mesoanalysis has mid 30s dew point. Dynamic cooling will make a run for it's money getting near freezing here lol. Correct me if I'm wrong but the temperature can only fall as low as the dew point right?
 
That dew point has dropped a decent bit in central Alabama spc mesoanalysis has mid 30s dew point. Dynamic cooling will make a run for it's money getting near freezing here lol. Correct me if I'm wrong but the temperature can only fall as low as the dew point right?
Yes and my experience has been for every degree the surface temp goes down the dew point rises by two degrees approx. to come up with the meeting point(wet bulb). But that’s really a side show for us in central AL. The ULL can bring its own atmosphere so to say thus it’s track is crucial to our snow opportunity tomorrow.
 
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