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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

iGRXY said:
I think they’re overdoing the ICE around here. Other then maybe a couple hours of light freezing rain, I HIGHLY doubt we get the 0.25-0.5” they’re forecasting. All the sounding support snow to sleet to light freezing rain for a couple of hours to snow again.
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Man I hope so. Hope the HRRR is on to something because 2 inches of snow with 0.5 in of ice on top is a nightmare
 
solid again on the HRRR. It’s staying steadfast. It’s getting within its range and is probably the best model at handling FGEN driven precip and dynamic cooling.
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bigstick10 said:
Not really,,,the airport is ENE at 15 currently...
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LovingGulfLows said:
Wow, I've had an East/ENE wind now for a little while...just goes to show you how just being even 25 miles east of ATL can have a difference in the wedging.
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It’s also possible that my anemometer isn’t working.

According to the WunderMap, most places ITP are reporting 39 to 40 with ENE or ESE winds
 
Parker said:
View attachment 105869We made it to lake toxaway around 12:30 last night. Not easy with a 9 month old and two women. It’s beautiful here. For some reason all my pictures post upside down!
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I’m going to go ahead and tell you, you’re going to probably get at least a foot. Lake toxaway does great in these winter storms. Moisture gets rung out and rates are always very very good.
 
The wind with this is going to be intense, ATL winds will be ENE at 25-35 with gusts to 50 tonight and tomorrow. This alone will cause power outages with the ground saturated.
 
All short range models continue to show accumulating snow for north AL. What is Huntsville NWS seeing to not go ahead and pull the trigger on at least a WSWatch?

Are they thinking once the surface low transfers the ULL will then rotate through AL on a depleting basis? Drying up?
 
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GaSnowhound said:
I am still holding onto Hope that the ULL won’t cut the wedge and stays on a more E course across Ga….someone was asking about analogs. Does Gawx (Larry) or any of our other local historians have any data on that scenario???
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It's a tall order to get the ULL track much different than what is modeled. That said, getting the CAD to overperform is doable. For our areas, that is our best hope IMHO with ZR being the main show.

We'll have two chances for some snow. The HRRR is really close to a burst with the FGEN band here and almost to you. The second chance will come on the backside of the ULL and 850Mb lows passage. To me, that is a lower chance scenario since we both know how that works out here. But nevertheless, strange things can happen with such powerful ULLs so I'm trying to keep expectations low but optimistic for a huge surprise.
 
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