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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

So just out of curiosity.. and off a comment from last night… anybody got an analog date for a storm with these predicted whacko paths of the low? Agreed winter wx of any precip type is very different here in the south.. but this storm in particular … the models have shown some very strange possibilities ?‍♀️
 
Returns showing in N AL & N GA. I wonder if that is reaching the ground. Don't remember seeing it modeled this early. Looks like a little snow in NE GA already.
 
MSnowAtl said:
I won't shocked if NWS Atlanta extend the WWA down to Henry, County, GA and southwestard.
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I sure hope so.

That would be a rock-solid indicator that the wedge is overperforming. FWIW, I'm sitting at 35 just to your NE with what looks to be a solid cloud deck rolling in. I know, I know but when even one or two degrees makes all the difference when on the fringe, every little bit helps.

Usually, in freezing rain CAD situations, the freezing surface layer is scoured out top to bottom with the warmer air aloft and latent heat release. What's different with this storm in the CAD region is there will be a sub-freezing layer at 925Mb and at least close to freezing at 850Mb. With a screaming NE wind constantly feeding in, it'll be fascinating to see if we're able to mix that down to the surface and overperform greatly.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
I sure hope so.

That would be a rock-solid indicator that the wedge is overperforming. FWIW, I'm sitting at 35 just to your NE with what looks to be a solid cloud deck rolling in. I know, I know but when even one or two degrees makes all the difference when on the fringe, every little bit helps.

Usually, in freezing rain CAD situations, the freezing surface layer is scoured out top to bottom with the warmer air aloft and latent heat release. What's different with this storm in the CAD region is there will be a sub-freezing layer at 925Mb and at least close to freezing at 850Mb. With a screaming NE wind constantly feeding in, it'll be fascinating to see if we're able to mix that down to the surface and overperform greatly.
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I checked some observations around the metro, and the winds are already coming in from the E/NE 6 to 10 mph.
 
33/26 right now near Monroe, NC. Mainly overcast with just a few breaks still off to the east. Kinda suprised by the amount of cloud cover, as the grids weren’t really bringing them in until later this morning. The forecast high is 44, and that’s actually come down from 47 since yesterday… still gonna be hard to do much more than 38 or 39 with a NE breeze and overcast skies
 
Six Mile Wx said:
Is the High to the north splitting our low in half? We really need the low further south View attachment 105851View attachment 105852
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It’s definitely moving further north then I’d like to see. I think the best window for upstate snow mostly north of 85. Is before that low gets to us because then warm nose turns it to mostly sleet and freezing rain. I posted on the Facebook group not to hug these huge 6-10 inch totals showing up on these short range models because sleet gonna compact this snow down. 6-10 will probably be 2-3 messy inches of snow sleet and some ice glaze


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MSnowAtl said:
I checked some observations around the metro, and the winds are already coming in from the E/NE 6 to 10 mph.
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Yeah. And some of those models showing sustained at 20-25 mph with higher gust as we approach go-time is something else.

My high is forecasted to reach 50 today. I doubt it, seriously.
 
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