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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

chapelhillwx said:
Kuchera takes temps etc into account and 10:1 just does a straight ratio and assumes 10x the liquid equivalent will accumulate on the ground. Kuchera is more accurate.
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Kuchera is most likely more accurate for northern areas of this storm where as 10:1 would be for the southern areas where temperature is not as cold at the sfc.
 
I know this probably came out earlier, but let's see how it does...ICON
1642413600-J4tX18XIMEI.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
I highly doubt that much ice out here given how the thermals are looking. If anything it'd be sleet or snow.
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Dunno, really like the handle of the 3km in this setup with holding up the wedge longer down there, and allowing freezing rain around those areas, many things going for ZR there with diurnal timing, possibility of wedge overperforming, which is probably a bit more likely with a very cold CAD setup like this, could be a period of 30-32 degree ZR in the morning, it’s not a final map anyways and I will go back and adjust tomorrow, also I would look at the lower end of the range there.
 
Tomorrow will be telling, and it will be interesting to see if the models play catch up to reality with regard to the wedge strength. There are too many wonky things happening on the models still to take anything to the bank (local met just showed winds sustained from the northeast at 30-40 mph - seems highly unlikely), and it's certainly not too late for things to move in the other direction either. Would love to see a stronger push all the way into Atlanta to signal that the models have mishandled the wedge. I'd say the old anecdote of colder/snowier conditions in Atlanta being a good sign for up 85 will certainly be in action with this one. Seeing models still trying to send the low up the Appalachians is concerning, but it seems to be perhaps mostly feedback issues. That makes me question their validity even more. Good luck to everyone hoping for a decent event!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
For the Upstate folks. Watch radar upstream. If this thing really digs into Atlanta then you better batten down the hatches. Atlanta is always a good indicator for folks in the southern portion of upstate SC.
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Always has been. Back before all this internet stuff we'd listen to the radio for reports coming out of Atlanta and up 85 for snow mixing in. Then you knew!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
For the Upstate folks. Watch radar upstream. If this thing really digs into Atlanta then you better batten down the hatches. Atlanta is always a good indicator for folks in the southern portion of upstate SC.
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It overperformed here, so that’s good for yall
 
The outlook for NW GA/Rome area seems to always teeter on the edge of over performing or completely falling apart. What is the make it or break it scenario here? What’s the big variable that keeps moving the target and shifting everything east- and even south of us?
 
susanfrances said:
The outlook for NW GA/Rome area seems to always teeter on the edge of over performing or completely falling apart. What is the make it or break it scenario here? What’s the big variable that keeps moving the target and shifting everything east- and even south of us?
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From what i gathered every new model run is different and its anyones guess, im just gonna wait til its time to see what happens
 
Nice little update from Memphis:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
953 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022

.UPDATE...
Winter Storm Watch has been expanded to cover portions of north
Mississippi and the Mississippi Delta. This evening`s guidance
continues to show significant accumulations along the I-40
corridor including Memphis and portions of north Mississippi.
Trends continue to hone in on the surface low dipping south and
moving northwestward over the weekend. Convective bands of snow
will be possible. Wherever those bands set up and where the low
starts to pivot northwest will be crucial to snow amounts. It is
still a very hard forecast this evening. Have made a small upward
push in snow amounts, but nothing too bad. Keep in mind that snow
accumulations will be highly dependent on where the actual band
sets up. We could be looking at some areas possibly getting over 5
inches of snow where others may get very little if any. Right now
it seems like areas along I-40 may be the sweet spot, but again
some guidance has come in with a little bit more of a southwest
trend. Have decided to hold off on warnings this evening to allow
for more data to be available. Look for upgrades to warnings in
the morning. Key takeaway is a possibly significant winter storm
is expected to impact parts of the Mid South Saturday night into
Sunday. Please take steps to prepare for hazardous travel
conditions as well as possible power outages as snow could be of
the heavy wet type.
 
Word of advice for those of us south of Huntsville. The models occasionally shower accumulating snow for some of these area, however be advised to watch the DGZ of these models and make sure it supports snow. The NAM yesterday was showing snow on sim radar despite most likely being drizzle or ice pellets. This made up a good chunk of the small snow accumulation. Just a warning.
 
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