Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[rhart]

does bham have any chance here?

 

[Snowflowxxl]

0z RGEM

 

[SNOWMANN]

Dang look how far N and NW the IP is, gonna be tons of pingers and snow lover hearts broken I'm afraid

View attachment 105755

I seen it happen before that warm nose is real! Hope the hrr is right and we hold on longer.

 

[J.C.]

0z RGEM
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The RGEM, my favorite model, has been nothing but consistent for several runs in a row.

 

[deltadog03]

I’m torn for the City of ATL……. On one hand I think they see some wintry, but I just don’t really know how much the wedge really gets in there.

 

[NWMSGuy]

For some of you more seasoned hobbyist/meteorologist on this board that understand the finer details of this system. Do we have a chance around the Mid-South to see any thundersnow as this system is coming through?

 

[GaWx]

Larry, I'm actually holding more hope for a week out, and that band of sleet at the northen edge of the precip shield. That seems a very likely kind of set up...if it happens, lol. I'll take whatever this present storm dishes out, as I don't think the zr down here would be particularly heavy, the way things presently look. But if the cad stays reinforced such that it makes it down here in force, then things would change. Can it make it past the I 20 terror wall, beyond which monsters be? That sleet band a week out is another matter, if it happens like that...and Goofy has had it for several runs now. Everything is so iffy/on the edge down here, but suppressed with cold in place has often worked for me down here....and clipper/hybred whatis not so much....not like when I was in Atl, at any rate. What's your call for Sav?

For SAV in a week? My abacus isn’t nearly powerful enough to even try to guess. The default is nothing due to climo but to also be hopeful because that’s the type of thing that can once in a blue moon do something.

I’m not giving up on the idea that there could be sizable sleet in much of ATL, especially north burbs. 850s are warning me that. What are the moles telling you? ?

 

[SD]

does bham have any chance here?

Probably for a change to some wet flakes or a period of snow yes. Nothing too significant to me

 

[Stormlover]

For some of you more seasoned hobbyist/meteorologist on this board that understand the finer details of this system. Do we have a chance around the Mid-South to see any thundersnow as this system is coming through?

Certainly possible

 

[sigwx]

does bham have any chance here?

Not sure some models say yes some say no should see something in the morning. Welcome by the way!!

 

[deltadog03]

For some of you more seasoned hobbyist/meteorologist on this board that understand the finer details of this system. Do we have a chance around the Mid-South to see any thundersnow as this system is coming through?

Possible yes

 

[ATLwxfan]

I’m torn for the City of ATL……. On one hand I think they see some wintry, but I just don’t really know how much the wedge really gets in there.

The north end of town, Buckhead and points north are often quite a bit colder than downtown. I think they have a shot.


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[Dewpoint Dan]

The north end of town, Buckhead and points north are often quite a bit colder than downtown. I think they have a shot.


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Is it because of an elevation difference ?

 

[deltadog03]

The north end of town, Buckhead and points north are often quite a bit colder than downtown. I think they have a shot.


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Yes E and NE of the city for sure.

 

[chapelhillwx]

Is it because of an elevation difference ?

Yep Lenox Mall is at 5,000 feet elevation.

 

[NWMSGuy]

Little Rock has expanded their WWA southward and have also introduced warnings. Thinking Memphis will expand products at some point. With the short term models coming onboard we could see Watches or Warnings soon around the I-40 corridor.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

For the Upstate folks. Watch radar upstream. If this thing really digs into Atlanta then you better batten down the hatches. Atlanta is always a good indicator for folks in the southern portion of upstate SC.

 

[DadOfJax]

For some of you more seasoned hobbyist/meteorologist on this board that understand the finer details of this system. Do we have a chance around the Mid-South to see any thundersnow as this system is coming through?

No thunder snow

 

[ATLwxfan]

Is it because of an elevation difference ?

In part. The piedmont really begins there in earnest. The other side of things is the expansive tree cover as well. When I used to live in Buckhead, I’d remember returning from the airport and the temp easily drops 7 or 8°.


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[NWMSGuy]

No thunder snow

Missing certain dynamics?