Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[whatalife]

12KM NAM shows the HRRR might not be crazy trying to keep us right at or slightly above freezing here in the CAE area during the heart of precipitation. More good signs that argue against major ice accretion. 3KM NAM a tick colder though.

I hate being right on the line of freezing rain.

 

[ForsythSnow]

I don't trust the NAM's PTYPE maps at all with how the column looks, not with how much dynamic cooling would happen. No way it takes 3 hours of 40 dbz snow to break 1800 ft of warmth that mind you is being funneled in from the wedge (so it's being cooled in 2 ways) and it stay all rain that whole time.

 

[NCSNOW]

Hrrr gives me and packfan atleast a 4 hour all snow window before the sleet color is on top of us. Hope this is right. Love to get 3 on the ground before that inch sleet, frzng rn etc dumps on us

 

[NWMSGuy]

For Northwest MS these 0Z runs look to be improvements! Looking at the HRRR as well as the 12 & 3KM NAM, totals for this area are increasing. Great great runs!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Notice the nam has increased ZR soundings in the second half of the storm for CLT along the the fv3 hi res, shows more of a warm nose vs a cool layer

 

[Benholio]

12k NAM gives N.GA light snow on the back end from ~1pm to 7pm

 

[Snownut]

Something about this NAM run that's Just weird. Not sure What but I think it's just not picking up on Something. Maybe it's not picking up on the Dynamical Cooling?

Sent from my SM-A526U using Tapatalk

 

[Snowflowxxl]

The HRW about to be stupid cold again

 

[BullCityWx]

3K NAM is much less aggressive with the warm front which gives me pause.

 

[Metwannabe]

ZR keeps expanding eastward ever so slightly

 

[ForsythSnow]

FV3 High res is south and colder lol. The wobbles are across the board.

 

[Montanasnow30]

FV3 High res is south and colder lol. The wobbles are across the board.

@ForsythSnow is this a good thing for central Georgia and central Alabama

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Fine line between WWA and WSW criteria in metro ATL. Good luck figuring out the line

I guess that’s the point. For ATL folks we are talking a wobble of 10 miles between glory and pain. Even at 30 hours out it’s still early for our area.

 

[Metwannabe]

Definitely expanded eastward @Shaggy @Downeastnc getting close to y'all too

 

[NCSNOW]

Nam has 850 low in Murphy , runing the apps lol. We can say adios to any backside flakes with that track.

Also spells big time trouble with more freezing rn predominant over sleet

The saving grace would be less qpf as we will dry slot, downslope if this is the case.

 

[GaWx]

850s are noticeably warmer on the 0z NAM here

Unless I’m missing something, I don’t see that much warmer for ATL area in general vs 18Z. Maybe 1C at most for warmest. Even so, that’s still only +5C, which is still very ZR friendly assuming there will be ample precip falling much of the night and strong wedging/east winds Sat night to get that low level cold air to ATL. And before that 850s still suggest IP to me.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

The WRF had all of metro Atlanta as an ice skating rink. Dumb model

 

[JLL1973]

For Northwest MS these 0Z runs look to be improvements! Looking at the HRRR as well as the 12 & 3KM NAM, totals for this area are increasing. Great great runs!

Yep. The nam is caving to the hrrr and euro with the upper level low

 

[Metwannabe]

Dang look how far N and NW the IP is, gonna be tons of pingers and snow lover hearts broken I'm afraid

 

[Chazwin]

Notice the nam has increased ZR soundings in the second half of the storm for CLT along the the fv3 hi res, shows more of a warm nose vs a cool layer

The bad part about the timing on that is that by the time the soundings are becoming predominant for ZR, the heaviest of the precip is moved through and we’re just left with light freezing rain and temperatures in the 20s…everything will freeze on contact and accrual a lot more efficiently than with heavy rain