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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

WeatherNC said:
Grain of salt, and this is where the Globals still come in <48hrs, that is HRRR feedback parking a 999mb in NE GA, it's called orographic lift. Expect the NAM to dampen this at-least on 12km res. SLP will follow lower/mid level gradient, maximum delta T to the coast and right now this looks like the eastern FL Panhandle through the Coastal Plain as vertical stacking begins. Bombs away, feeling much better for western NC with elevation at this stage, highest tops are looking at several feet.
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The low traveling up through GA into NC caught my eye too. Hard to make sense of it.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
925s are colder In NC on the 12km probably gonna be a very sleety run
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Yes they are. These 925 temperatures are probably the biggest reason that I’ve not been buying into the these big ZR totals for CLT metro. These soundings have been showing sub-freezing from 925mb down to the surface yet the surface map output shows ZR.
 
ref1km_ptype.us_state_nc_va.png
 
12KM NAM shows the HRRR might not be crazy trying to keep us right at or slightly above freezing here in the CAE area during the heart of precipitation. More good signs that argue against major ice accretion. 3KM NAM a tick colder though.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
But the 3km is kinda bearish around CLT with the band, that trend north with everything including the 850 low isn’t very ideal View attachment 105745
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Always seems to happen with most every storm. Lets hope this is not the start of a trend but it is a little discouraging. We are getting closer to crunch time.
 
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