Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[Tarheel1]

this is a pretty classic heavy rimed snow/sleet band, driven off dynamical cooling, you can tell of the deep blue returns especially View attachment 105722

Ooooof! That’s some heavy sleet in Downtown Greenville

 

[JLL1973]

What a deformation band. View attachment 105724

Precip was quite a bit north than on previous run. My main concern is the continued northward shift in future runs but man it’s pretty right now

 

[HSVweather]

Big deformation band looks like it could bring a couple inches to central and north Alabama. Temperatures hovering around 33/34 in that time frame. Would like to see it around freezing mark but I'll take what I can get.

I hope rates can bring the cold down but 1 hr qpf is .2, this is HSV at 8am

 

[Ollie Williams]

The HRRR snow algorithm is weird. It has us accumulating snow despite a changeover to sleet.

 

[DopplerWx]

Hrrr pretty north with precip at 42.

 

[Jessy89]

Does anyone actually believe the mountains turn over to sleet?


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[TheBatman]

 

[Zander98al]

Here's a interesting thing for weather weenies. Dew points around 32 in central Alabama.aka Radiational cooling should be able to get to that 32. Man this is flirting with such a fine line. I have a gut feeling that the CAD is going to extend almost near Birmingham

 

[Snowflowxxl]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Soundings reveal that during the peak of the snow band around Charlotte, 850s manage to cool off right below 0C, the DGZ is also fairly high as well and has plenty of omega, this points to IP/graupel/heavily rimed snowflakes on the front end with this solution, who ever gets under this will have fun for a couple of hours before IP takes over with this look, I would like to see the 3km show something similar and other CAMs, i think even the HRRR is overselling it a bit

 

[WeatherNC]

Grain of salt, and this is where the Globals still come in <48hrs, that is HRRR feedback parking a 999mb in NE GA, it's called orographic lift. Expect the NAM to dampen this at-least on 12km res. SLP will follow lower/mid level gradient, maximum delta T to the coast and right now this looks like the eastern FL Panhandle through the Coastal Plain as vertical stacking begins. Bombs away, feeling much better for western NC with elevation at this stage, highest tops are looking at several feet.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Fine line between WWA and WSW criteria in metro ATL. Good luck figuring out the line

 

[Zander98al]

Now let's see what the 3km nam says lol. Still not fully trusting the LR HRRR lol.

 

[Chazwin]

I just don’t trust the HRRR past hour 20 tbh

The reason that I give it such attention in this situation is because it has a great history of catching onto these FGEN bands. It also helps that this something that the Euro had been very steadfast in the last several days, so it has that support. Also if you compare the different runs of the NAM today, you’ll notice that the NAM is moving towards what the HRRR is showing… it’s just having a problem catching onto the strong dynamical cooling that takes place from it

 

[Stormlover]

hrrr

 

[Weatherlover92]

Fine line between WWA and WSW criteria in metro ATL. Good luck figuring out the line

I would issue the WWA and if need be go to a WSW. I wouldn’t be surprised if they did that.

 

[J.C.]

Fine line between WWA and WSW criteria in metro ATL. Good luck figuring out the line

I would anticipate the fringe counties of the watch being upgraded to an advisory, and the inner counties being updated to a WSW. They completely canceled the Hazardous weather outlook statement for areas south and west hours ago, so that just just goes to show you they aren't even the slightest bit concerned about that area.

 

[iGRXY]

 

[Philstorm91]

Really cool to see that my area in southern Louisiana may get some flurries out of this storm. #lowexpectations

 

[SouthGarnerSleet]

That low track on the HRRR isnt ideal for anyone in NC who likes snow (outside the high country)