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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

packfan98 said:
And that’s the FRAM ice map. Geez! Do you have the sleet map from Weatherbell?
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Well if we deduct .55 off 1.2. Leaves .65 for sleet an snow.
If I think we are gonna go north .5 frzng rn, means Ive got to do more prep here and at parent house. I geberally dont sweat it till we cross that .5 mark. Every tenth after that problems exponentially get bad -fast
 
Using the HRRR leading up to 0z, trends, 700mb temp advection is trending stronger through the middle MS river valley, H5 packet stronger diving SE from OK. Mentioned a couple days ago, still think this is a congealing low coming out of the eastern FL Panhandle. Very fine balance and some feedback issues given nuance, bombogenesis definition between Savanah and Long Island will be met.20220115_004617_goesEast_abi_conus_06p95um.gif
 
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I’m perplexed!
Does anyone else think the models showing ATL staying above 32 for the entire front part of the storm are wrong? I realize it may be above 32 for however many hours at the start with any rain that falls in the first part of the night, but the wedge will be then be strengthening overnight with increasingly strong E winds bringing in cold air. 850s never get above +4 C on any model.

History back to 1950 at ATL and other nearby areas (per examining old maps) says that when there is a strong wedge that holds combined with ample rainfall (in this case ~1”, which is plenty ample) and 850s don’t get above +5C, there will very likely be at least some ZR. But I’m seeing only down to 38ish on the Euro/GFS. Sorry, but that’s not going to happen imho as long as they actually get that ~1” of rain of course. If it does, that would be isothermal from 850 to the surface!! How can that possibly be with a wedge of colder air?? A wedge by definition has to be colder at the sfc than at 4K feet up (850 at ATL is 4K feet above ground, which is 5K feet elevation).

The next thing I wanted to eliminate is that the parent high isn’t that cold. I can eliminate that right now because highs in much of SE Canada were way down in the -0s. Lows this morning and tomorrow are in the -20s to some -30s!
Then I checked NYC and Philly, where the cold air is coming in. They’re expecting lows well down in the teens the next two nights with highs tomorrow only near low to mid 20s. There’s a strong (1040 mb) high that will move into the NE and will be slow to move out and weaken thanks to a 50/50 low.

By the way, with as cold as 850s are expected to be (only 0 to +2C through much of the night), that’s actually an indicator more for sleet than ZR per history. I see no mention of sleet in the FFC ATL forecast. I’m thinking that there could very well be several hours of sleet preceding a change to ZR. @dsaur even down your way there COULD be some sleet.

Side note: FFC has a high of 51 at KATL tomorrow. Maxar also does but has the coldest Sat/Sun low only down to 36. That’s going to bust!
 
Snownut said:
Globals within this range is really useless. They are not Short range models for a reason

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They still carry weight when factoring in known biases and strengths. Granted this is fully inside the meso / convective allowing envelope (already wreaking havoc), for those with Bell access I would like to see the new HR RGEM, NCEP has a package of near term models in beta that will also be helpful.
 
GaWx said:
I’m perplexed!
Does anyone else think the models showing ATL staying above 32 for the entire front part of the storm are wrong? I realize it may be above 32 for however many hours at the start with any rain that falls in the first part of the night, but the wedge will be then be strengthening overnight with increasingly strong E winds bringing in cold air. 850s never get above +4 C on any model.

History back to 1950 at ATL and other nearby areas (per examining old maps) says that when there is a strong wedge that holds combined with ample rainfall (in this case ~1”, which is plenty ample) and 850s don’t get above +5C, there will very likely be at least some ZR. But I’m seeing only down to 38ish on the Euro/GFS. Sorry, but that’s not going to happen imho as long as they actually get that ~1” of rain of course. If it does, that would be isothermal from 850 to the surface!! How can that possibly be with a wedge of colder air?? A wedge by definition has to be colder at the sfc than at 4K feet up (850 at ATL is 4K feet above ground, which is 5K feet elevation).

The next thing I wanted to eliminate is that the parent high isn’t that cold. I can eliminate that right now because highs in much of SE Canada were way down in the -0s. Lows this morning and tomorrow are in the -20s to some -30s!
Then I checked NYC and Philly, where the cold air is coming in. They’re expecting lows well down in the teens the next two nights with highs tomorrow only near low to mid 20s. There’s a strong (1040 mb) high that will move into the NE and will be slow to move out and weaken thanks to a 50/50 low.

By the way, with as cold as 850s are expected to be (only 0 to +2C through much of the night), that’s actually an indicator more for sleet than ZR per history. I see no mention of sleet in the FFC ATL forecast. I’m thinking that there could very well be several hours of sleet preceding a change to ZR. @dsaur even down your way there COULD be some sleet.

Side note: FFC has a high of 51 at KATL tomorrow. Maxar also does but has the coldest Sat/Sun low only down to 36. That’s going to bust!
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This is not a banter post, but this is the REALIST POST EVER! GAWx, I been living in GA all of my life. I have never seen a storm complex on the models. A strong HP damning into Atlanta, you can forget about 38 degrees. Right now, I am speechless at FFC & this storm. I feel like they wee going to bust and Atlanta and some area west of metro will get in too.
 
GaWx said:
I’m perplexed!
Does anyone else think the models showing ATL staying above 32 for the entire front part of the storm are wrong? I realize it may be above 32 for however many hours at the start with any rain that falls in the first part of the night, but the wedge will be then be strengthening overnight with increasingly strong E winds bringing in cold air. 850s never get above +4 C on any model.

History back to 1950 at ATL and other nearby areas (per examining old maps) says that when there is a strong wedge that holds combined with ample rainfall (in this case ~1”, which is plenty ample) and 850s don’t get above +5C, there will very likely be at least some ZR. But I’m seeing only down to 38ish on the Euro/GFS. Sorry, but that’s not going to happen imho as long as they actually get that ~1” of rain of course. If it does, that would be isothermal from 850 to the surface!! How can that possibly be with a wedge of colder air?? A wedge by definition has to be colder at the sfc than at 4K feet up (850 at ATL is 4K feet above ground, which is 5K feet elevation).

The next thing I wanted to eliminate is that the parent high isn’t that cold. I can eliminate that right now because highs in much of SE Canada were way down in the -0s. Lows this morning and tomorrow are in the -20s to some -30s!
Then I checked NYC and Philly, where the cold air is coming in. They’re expecting lows well down in the teens the next two nights with highs tomorrow only near low to mid 20s. There’s a strong (1040 mb) high that will move into the NE and will be slow to move out and weaken thanks to a 50/50 low.

By the way, with as cold as 850s are expected to be (only 0 to +2C through much of the night), that’s actually an indicator more for sleet than ZR per history. I see no mention of sleet in the FFC ATL forecast. I’m thinking that there could very well be several hours of sleet preceding a change to ZR. @dsaur even down your way there COULD be some sleet.

Side note: FFC has a high of 51 at KATL tomorrow. Maxar also does but has the coldest Sat/Sun low only down to 36. That’s going to bust!
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Is it a blend of models they are using to forecast the high of 51F tomorrow? I just looked through all the high resolution and long range and didn't see a single output of higher than 48, most were low to mid 40s. They must know something we don't. I've also never seen a wedge that penetrated deep into the midlands of South Carolina with sub-freezing temperatures that didn't also penetrate west of Atlanta, so this would be a first, at least from my recollection.
 
GaWx said:
I’m perplexed!
Does anyone else think the models showing ATL staying above 32 for the entire front part of the storm are wrong? I realize it may be above 32 for however many hours at the start with any rain that falls in the first part of the night, but the wedge will be then be strengthening overnight with increasingly strong E winds bringing in cold air. 850s never get above +4 C on any model.

History back to 1950 at ATL and other nearby areas (per examining old maps) says that when there is a strong wedge that holds combined with ample rainfall (in this case ~1”, which is plenty ample) and 850s don’t get above +5C, there will very likely be at least some ZR. But I’m seeing only down to 38ish on the Euro/GFS. Sorry, but that’s not going to happen imho as long as they actually get that ~1” of rain of course. If it does, that would be isothermal from 850 to the surface!! How can that possibly be with a wedge of colder air?? A wedge by definition has to be colder at the sfc than at 4K feet up (850 at ATL is 4K feet above ground, which is 5K feet elevation).

The next thing I wanted to eliminate is that the parent high isn’t that cold. I can eliminate that right now because highs in much of SE Canada were way down in the -0s. Lows this morning and tomorrow are in the -20s to some -30s!
Then I checked NYC and Philly, where the cold air is coming in. They’re expecting lows well down in the teens the next two nights with highs tomorrow only near low to mid 20s. There’s a strong (1040 mb) high that will move into the NE and will be slow to move out and weaken thanks to a 50/50 low.

By the way, with as cold as 850s are expected to be (only 0 to +2C through much of the night), that’s actually an indicator more for sleet than ZR per history. I see no mention of sleet in the FFC ATL forecast. I’m thinking that there could very well be several hours of sleet preceding a change to ZR. @dsaur even down your way there COULD be some sleet.

Side note: FFC has a high of 51 at KATL tomorrow. Maxar also does but has the coldest Sat/Sun low only down to 36. That’s going to bust!
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Agreed, I didn’t want to say it because we really won’t know for sure until it’s happening but I suspect there will be quite a bit of sleet in ATL (ITP) from this than what’s being forecast. It’s seriously starting to feel like a February 2014 situation here.
 
GaWx said:
I’m perplexed!
Does anyone else think the models showing ATL staying above 32 for the entire front part of the storm are wrong? I realize it may be above 32 for however many hours at the start with any rain that falls in the first part of the night, but the wedge will be then be strengthening overnight with increasingly strong E winds bringing in cold air. 850s never get above +4 C on any model.

History back to 1950 at ATL and other nearby areas (per examining old maps) says that when there is a strong wedge that holds combined with ample rainfall (in this case ~1”, which is plenty ample) and 850s don’t get above +5C, there will very likely be at least some ZR. But I’m seeing only down to 38ish on the Euro/GFS. Sorry, but that’s not going to happen imho as long as they actually get that ~1” of rain of course. If it does, that would be isothermal from 850 to the surface!! How can that possibly be with a wedge of colder air?? A wedge by definition has to be colder at the sfc than at 4K feet up (850 at ATL is 4K feet above ground, which is 5K feet elevation).

The next thing I wanted to eliminate is that the parent high isn’t that cold. I can eliminate that right now because highs in much of SE Canada were way down in the -0s. Lows this morning and tomorrow are in the -20s to some -30s!
Then I checked NYC and Philly, where the cold air is coming in. They’re expecting lows well down in the teens the next two nights with highs tomorrow only near low to mid 20s. There’s a strong (1040 mb) high that will move into the NE and will be slow to move out and weaken thanks to a 50/50 low.

By the way, with as cold as 850s are expected to be (only 0 to +2C through much of the night), that’s actually an indicator more for sleet than ZR per history. I see no mention of sleet in the FFC ATL forecast. I’m thinking that there could very well be several hours of sleet preceding a change to ZR. @dsaur even down your way there COULD be some sleet.

Side note: FFC has a high of 51 at KATL tomorrow. Maxar also does but has the coldest Sat/Sun low only down to 36. That’s going to bust!
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Great post sir. I will say from looking at satellite today, that 50/50 is definitely robust and looking temperatures observation across SE Canada, they are definitely what you look for in advance of a very strong classic CAD set up.
 
NWS not seeing the warm nose scenario playing out in WNC. Subject to change I guess. 3k was concerning but that low placement is suspect. We’ll see. 1E8D00CF-3132-415F-B4EA-66272AE2049F.jpeg
 
MSnowAtl said:
This is not a banter post, but this is the REALIST POST EVER! GAWx, I been living in GA all of my life. I have never seen a storm complex on the models. A strong HP damning into Atlanta, you can forget about 38 degrees. Right now, I am speechless at FFC & this storm. I feel like they wee going to bust and Atlanta and some area west of metro will get in too.
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Most people arent concerned as much as the FFC busting the other way....We have a much better memory on forecast busts with winter wx when we get blanked more than when FFC calls for 1" of snow and we get 6" ?

Obviously ice is different and more dangerous, but we have this discussion every time we have a threat of winter wx in the south and FFC are right more at the end of the day vs us amateurs(speaking for myself Obviously).
 
Hope this is not taken as banter, but I’ve noticed squirrels much more active over the last day or so lol … hope it is a good sign. Also noticed many crews this week trimming limbs away from power lines in preparation.

Almost go time … good luck to all … thank you all for your contributions. A lot of good stuff here!
 
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