Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[griteater]

My updated forecast. Just a few tweaks. Admittedly, the soundings show more sleet than freezing rain compared to what I have, but I'm predicting that the modeling will warm some between now and Sunday. Will issue a final update tomorrow. Good luck to all!

 

[malak05]

When is the 00z

Times are in EST
GFS (out to 384 hours)
0z: 10:30pm
6z: 4:30am
12z: 10:30am
18z: 4:30pm

NAM (out to 84 hours)*RDP runs a little bit later after 9
0z: 8:35pm
6z: 2:35am
12z: 8:35am
18z: 2:35pm

CMC (out to 180 hours)
0z: 12:00am
12z : 12:00pm

UKMET (out to 72 hours)
0z: 12:30am
12z: 12:30pm

ECMWF (EURO) (out to 240 hours)
0z: 1:30am
12z: 1:30pm

HRRR/RAP run pretty much hourly and HRWs 0z run around 10 I believe?

 

[Zander98al]

When is the 00z

I think 00z HRRR starts to roll out around 7 or 8 if I'm not mistaken. And then the nam starts a little while after that

 

[jrips27]

Anybody got the Euro 18z details?

Out to 33. Very minor differences. Maybe a tiny bit slower and a tiny bit deeper

 

[SD]

Snow in the 20s ?View attachment 103260View attachment 103261View attachment 103262

Solid job by the gfs on temps

 

[Zander98al]

This is where it looks like the 22z is trying to establish the low. Lines up with previous LR HRRR runs from 12z and 18z.

 

[Oconeexman]

My updated forecast. Just a few tweaks. Admittedly, the soundings show more sleet than freezing rain compared to what I have, but I'm predicting that the modeling will warm some between now and Sunday. Will issue a final update tomorrow. Good luck to all!

Looks good to me. There's sooo much bust potential high and low around the I85 corridor. I'm hoping tomorrow you have to make some uptick changes...lol

 

[JHS]

Euro has the low center well inland over NC. Center goes right over Raleigh. Charlotte goes above freezing on it but after most precip has ended. Most of SC below I-85 gets above freezing too but only after a bad ice storm.

 

[WeatherNC]

This will be a go from Eastern to Western NC, higher than I would like bust potential, 18"+ still suspect. As things stand now, I booked a small apartment 2 minute walk to App State, 2 nights. Actively working on a spot in Sugar Village as this will be elevation dependent, the difference between 3 and 4+ thousand feet will be significant. Wheels up around noon tomorrow and hope to do some live streaming once shop is established and hammer down.

 

[SouthGarnerSleet]

This will be a go from Eastern to Western NC, higher than I would like bust potential, 18"+ still suspect. As things stand now, I booked a small apartment 2 minute walk to App State, 2 nights. Actively working on a spot in Sugar Village as this will be elevation dependent, the difference between 3 and 4+ thousand feet will be significant. Wheels up around noon tomorrow and hope to do some live streaming once shop is established and hammer down.

I’m on Sugar at 4300- it’s truly a crap shoot at these elevations : either 12 or 18 depending on…

 

[ajr]

This will be a go from Eastern to Western NC, higher than I would like bust potential, 18"+ still suspect. As things stand now, I booked a small apartment 2 minute walk to App State, 2 nights. Actively working on a spot in Sugar Village as this will be elevation dependent, the difference between 3 and 4+ thousand feet will be significant. Wheels up around noon tomorrow and hope to do some live streaming once shop is established and hammer down.

Will be in Avery County (Banner Elk area around ~3700 ft) - very hopeful for some good totals

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

This will be a go from Eastern to Western NC, higher than I would like bust potential, 18"+ still suspect. As things stand now, I booked a small apartment 2 minute walk to App State, 2 nights. Actively working on a spot in Sugar Village as this will be elevation dependent, the difference between 3 and 4+ thousand feet will be significant. Wheels up around noon tomorrow and hope to do some live streaming once shop is established and hammer down.

Drive to sugar top

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[packfan98]

View attachment 105676View attachment 105677

And that’s the FRAM ice map. Geez! Do you have the sleet map from Weatherbell?

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[malak05]

View attachment 105676View attachment 105677

We mind sharing totals for further west into GA/AL

 

[Myfrotho704_]

And that’s the FRAM ice map. Geez! Do you have the sleet map from Weatherbell?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

We mind sharing totals for further west into GA/AL

 

[tempo47]

So if the low stays more south would that just mean more snow around I20 in GA?

 

[SNOWMANN]

Unless these trends reverse i don't see much more than 12in in WNC maybe above 4000 12+. Even the foothills will do good to see 3-5 imo based on recent runs. Not the trends you want to see for snow for us in the foothills. Down east will probably be saved by sleet and high rates .25 is possible in areas maybe pockets of more than that. I'm going 3k and hrr tomorrow night probably your most likely outcome by then.