Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[Wild Weather Monger]

I need to see these gulf members please. This is what I have:

View attachment 105636View attachment 105637View attachment 105638

I think what's deceiving with the surface low placement on both the operational and ensemble maps is the surface low feature is actually elongated (occluded?) and the location of the absolute lowest pressure is irrelevant. It's better to look at the surface wind barbs to get a handle on how the low-level flow is interacting with the low from the CAD high. Then once in Georgia, it of course begins the handoff to the coastal in SC.

That said, the GFS did take another tick south with the overall surface flow although it didn't appear to change the model's thermal profiles much at all...yet.

 

[DopplerWx]

This futurecast is a best case scenario for clt folks. 3hrs of snow then sleet and finishing as snow on top.

 

[TheBatman]

Guys several post has been deleted because of banter or small talk. Please use this forum for this.

Misc - 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

True. Winters just been so disappointing around here lol. I just remember most of them were so exciting when I was a child, Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk A lot of us get biased for nostalgia. The older you get, the better things were when you were a child. ? That said, you're absolutely...

southernwx.com

 

[SouthGarnerSleet]

I definitely don't think we will see much in the way of rain. Whatever falls is going to be frozen. This CAD is just too stout. Area's further east, closer to the LP, sure. But I am pretty confident CLT stays frozen throughout the entire duration.

I remember my first warm nose in NC too

 

[WeatherNC]

Cantore replied to me on Twitter regarding where, my understanding is he is currently in CLT.

 

[Chazwin]

This futurecast is a best case scenario for clt folks. 3hrs of snow then sleet and finishing as snow on top.

Kinda suprised to see his future cast model that bullish looking

 

[JHS]

I definitely don't think we will see much in the way of rain. Whatever falls is going to be frozen. This CAD is just too stout. Area's further east, closer to the LP, sure. But I am pretty confident CLT stays frozen throughout the entire duration.

Yep if the CAD is there, and I think it will be, that is a lock. Everyone NW of highway 72 in SC would stay below freezing. I would also think all of Union county NC would stay below too. Might be iffy for Wadesboro down to Lancaster and SE of there though.

 

[BufordWX]

FFC projected start time of wintry Precipitation.

 

[JHS]

That kinda reminds of the February 2015 Ice/Sleet Storm when the GFS was way off on temperatures in NE GA just 12 hours before. It had those areas in the mid to upper 30s with rain and they actually were 10-12 degrees colder with major ice

That was a big bust for lots of people. Was supposed to be rain here too, but we got sleet.

 

[HSVweather]

GRAF model

 

[Chazwin]

That was a big bust for lots of people. Was supposed to be rain here too, but we got sleet.

Yeah the key to it was a mesohigh that formed in SW VA that helped strengthen the CAD… the short range models picked it up, but the GFS never did

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Rap lol

 

[JLL1973]

Rap lol View attachment 105662

never really paid much attention to the rap. Does it have good verification scores?

 

[iGRXY]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

never really paid much attention to the rap. Does it have good verification scores?

It’s not good but it ain’t bad, it’s alright between hour 1-25, it uses the same algorithms as thd HRRR model

 

[njbarrineau]

It’s not good but it ain’t bad, it’s alright between hour 1-25, it uses the same algorithms as thd HRRR model

When I’m the scheme of things is it most beneficial? 24 hours ish?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Zander98al]

Checking the 22z HRRR. The HRRR is really trying to establish a surface low on the gulf by Midday Saturday. Only a few more hours to the 00z to see the whole picture. This is Paramount for snow totals being pushed south

 

[malak05]

Anybody got the Euro 18z details?

 

[Montanasnow30]

Checking the 22z HRRR. The HRRR is really trying to establish a surface low on the gulf by Midday Saturday. Only a few more hours to the 00z to see the whole picture. This is Paramount for snow totals being pushed south

Hmmm you guys around the I-20 area needs to definitely follow this storm closely there’s definitely going to be some surprises especially in Alabama

 

[Nomanslandva]

00Z should be interesting tonight. Curious so see if the NAM can speed things up and if it holds that ice look. We go into an ice sounding for about 8 hours. Considering it is normally stronger, make it 10. Doubt we stay sleet either.

NWS must be discounting NAM to a degree because there is no mention of ice in my point and click.