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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Something about that NAM and it’s mixing issues in WNC got me thinking. We all pay attention when the NAM is throwing mixing issues out there inside 60 hours, because of the track record it has with sniffing out warm noses. However it also has a known problem with sniffing out the dynamic cooling that comes with a strong FGEN band of precip. It actually had problems with it in the December 2018 storm, but it was even more prevalent in that western SC Upstate, southern NC Mountains/Foothills event last February. The HRRR was steadfast as soon as it came into range and many just kept saying it would fold, but it never did. It wasn’t until about 6 hours before the start of the event that the NAM finally caught onto it. Not saying that definitely going to happen here, but it does play into know biases.
 
TigerSnow said:
I think we most likely see a sloppy mix of sleet and maybe a little snow with a dash of rain mixed in around Charlotte. Seen this story a lot. Warm nose always wins even in my area north of Charlotte. The low is just cranking to much and blowtorching with those windows from the south.
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I definitely don't think we will see much in the way of rain. Whatever falls is going to be frozen. This CAD is just too stout. Area's further east, closer to the LP, sure. But I am pretty confident CLT stays frozen throughout the entire duration.
 
Chazwin said:
Something about that NAM and it’s mixing issues in WNC got me thinking. We all pay attention when the NAM is throwing mixing issues out there inside 60 hours, because of the track record it has with sniffing out warm noses. However it also has a known problem with sniffing out the dynamic cooling that comes with a strong FGEN band of precip. It actually had problems with it in the December 2018 storm, but it was even more prevalent in that western SC Upstate, southern NC Mountains/Foothills event last February. The HRRR was steadfast as soon as it came into range and many just kept saying it would fold, but it never did. It wasn’t until about 6 hours before the start of the event that the NAM finally caught onto it. Not saying that definitely going to happen here, but it does play into know biases.
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I would not bet against the NAM and it sniffing out a warm nose. It always seems to win out.

It really comes down to how the low tracks and how much the warm nose comes into play. It will be there though for sure.
 
ryan1234 said:
Meh, I think he may be possibly doing ice totals. I think a WSW is sufficient enough considering the uncertainty in what type of precip may fall. What's concerning to me is the fact that we may see a quick burst of 1-3 inches of front-end snow and if we add even a .50 inch on top of that, with the wind we could be looking at some significant issues. But not sure if that warrants an Ice storm warning.
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Yeah.., I really feel like the Ice Storm Warning is well placed by GSP, because again looking at the soundings a lot of what these have been showing as freezing rain is with a strong sleet sounding.
 
TigerSnow said:
I think we most likely see a sloppy mix of sleet and maybe a little snow with a dash of rain mixed in around Charlotte. Seen this story a lot. Warm nose always wins even in my area north of Charlotte. The low is just cranking to much and blowtorching with those windows from the south.
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I think there’s a couple inches of sleet in charlotte, and I highly doubt we get warm enough to rain. Lol
 
malak05 said:
For Example Soundings off of Pivotal for Cherokee, Etowah, and Lawrence counties in AL all show Snow sounds even though model depicts rain and no accumulation at frame 48
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Look at your saturation in the dendritic growth zone, ~80%, shallow and it’s drying. Looks like solid plates or maybe columns, i.e. Ice pellets

81C6438A-732D-4945-A3BB-A7A4B359D815.png
 
Chazwin said:
Something about that NAM and it’s mixing issues in WNC got me thinking. We all pay attention when the NAM is throwing mixing issues out there inside 60 hours, because of the track record it has with sniffing out warm noses. However it also has a known problem with sniffing out the dynamic cooling that comes with a strong FGEN band of precip. It actually had problems with it in the December 2018 storm, but it was even more prevalent in that western SC Upstate, southern NC Mountains/Foothills event last February. The HRRR was steadfast as soon as it came into range and many just kept saying it would fold, but it never did. It wasn’t until about 6 hours before the start of the event that the NAM finally caught onto it. Not saying that definitely going to happen here, but it does play into know biases.
Click to expand...
Agree. This would be completely different if this was a in-situ CAD event, there wouldn’t be any front end snow, this CAD is a hybrid setup and will have dry air in the low levels feeding in as precip starts, there’s gonna probably be a burst of snow on the beginning from dynamical cooling. it happens with almost every Miller B winter storm that has a hybrid/classical CAD, even 2002 had snow to start out, any ticks south with the 850mb low helps a ton tho
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I think there’s a couple inches of sleet in charlotte, and I highly doubt we get warm enough to
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Agree. This would be completely different if this was a in-situ CAD event, there wouldn’t be any front end snow, this CAD is a hybrid and will have dry air in the low levels feeding in as precip starts, there’s gonna be a burst of snow on the beginning from dynamical cooling it happens with almost every Miller B winter storm that has a hybrid/classical CAD, even 2002 had snow to start out
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Hopefully we can get a front end thump of snow. Models have been hinting at it. I guess I am just pessimistic from years past when that front end snow never develops or it’s gobbled up by dry air.
 
What really makes me giggle is just how different some of these models are when it comes to snowfall amounts, etc. That includes NAM, HRRR, ICON, GFS, and in-house weather models. It's literally all over the place right now. Basically might as well play a game of Russian Roulette. Or make this into a drinking game. Whatever floats your boat. ?
 
ryan1234 said:
What really makes me giggle is just how different some of these models are when it comes to snowfall amounts, etc. That includes NAM, HRRR, ICON, GFS, and in-house weather models. It's literally all over the place right now. Basically might as well play a game of Russian Roulette. Or make this into a drinking game. Whatever floats your boat. ?
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It is largely because the difference in a foot of snow and an inch of rain is just one degree. the temperatures all the way down the column have to be cold enough to support the snow . these models are trying to split hairs with temps. you might notice random areas on different models have much while close by have none.......right now it is too close to call.
 
Spann

SNOW POTENTIAL SUNDAY: The overall thinking for Sunday hasn’t changed. As colder air drops into Alabama, rain will change to light snow Sunday. The heaviest snow will most likely be north of Alabama over Tennessee, where a winter storm watch is in effect. Some light accumulation is possible across North Alabama, generally north of a line from Sulligent to Roanoke. Amounts will be generally under one inch on grassy areas… isolated heavier amounts are possible over the Tennessee Valley, and parts of Northeast Alabama (especially across higher terrain).
 
Very well stated. But, you and I know that as conservative as he is, he's damn good at nailing profiles and his predictions are usually solid.

However, I want his ass to be dead wrong! SNOW ⬆️
ryan1234 said:
Meh, I think he may be possibly overdoing doing ice totals. I think a WSW is sufficient enough considering the uncertainty in what type of precip may fall. What's concerning to me is the fact that we may see a quick burst of 1-3 inches of front-end snow and if we add even a .50 inch on top of that, with the wind we could be looking at some significant issues. But not sure if that warrants an Ice storm warning.
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