Sunday...Confidence high that the predominate precipitation
type across the region will be freezing rain...with the most
icing during the morning. The greatest
icing impacts are
expected during the morning...
The forecast problem remains how cold the near surface layer
will be. With strong
upper level convergence over the Delmarva
region and offshore, expect the strong pressure
ridge (Modified
Arctic
air mass ) to build southwest across the western
Carolinas. This will set up a rather strong cold air damming
wedge. Prefer the colder
Nam and
ECMWF models over the
GFS and
NBM
Mos guidance for surface temperatures. If the wedge is a
little stronger, the significant
icing may spread a little
further south. Will continue to monitor model trends. During
Sunday morning the region will be under a favorable
upper level
jet structure ahead of the approaching
cyclone. Strong upper
level
divergence and very strong warm
advection/
isentropic lift
over the cold dome aided by low level 60kt to possibly 70kt low
level east/southeast
jet may result in some heavy rain with
precipitable water > 150-175 percent of
normal. With a
deepening
warm nose aloft and surface temperatures near or below freezing
across the central and especially northern Midlands, the
precipitation will be mainly freezing rain. Significant
icing
expected across the northern Midlands 0.25-0.35 in., and 0.10 in
the CAE
metro area. In the southern Midlands and CSRA, expect
mainly rain but again if the cold surface layer is a few degrees
colder, some freezing rain may develop in those areas. Will
have to
watch model trends. Some snow/sleet still possibly
mainly during the onset before the warm nose deepens but any
accumulations should be minimal. Another issue is the potential
for gusty winds 20 to 30 mph through early afternoon. These
winds could bring down a few trees due to
icing.
They like the NAM and Euro better than the GFS for this and hint the major icing could occur farther south in their CWA. This is from CAE by the way.