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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Im rooting for the Icon: Ill take that 12 ukie 10;1. Cant complain when you gonna get your grass covered and see white everywhere outside the window. No matter how crusty or Soft. Passes my standard for a good storm
 
bigstick10 said:
Can you show the source please? Thanks (maps).
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Pivotal showed nil:

FYI, these are free to anyone- but if you aren't sure, here's how:

1) Go to www.pivitalweather.com
2 Models >Under "global", select UKMET > Winter weather > 24 hr accumulated snowfall (10:1)1642179715703.png
 
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NCSNOW said:
Im rooting for the Icon: Ill take that 12 ukie 10;1. Cant complain when you gonna get your grass covered and see white everywhere outside the window. No matter how crusty or Soft. Passes my standard for a good storm
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Would certainly be a good look -- boom scenario. I'm not even looking at the globals at this point, I don't think that they'll correctly portray totals at their resolution. I personally would be surprised if anyone sees above an inch of pure snow NE of Davidson. Sleet may be a different story though.
 
One positive I am seeing on shorter range guidance is the sleet line extending further into South Carolina. This is key to the I-20 zone. A further track South with the low, the more chances the ZR line gets shunted South right along or even South of I-20 with sleet being the predominate precipitation type and into Snow (before the changeover) as you head North through the state. Still too early to tell where precipitation types line up though.
 
FamouslyHot said:
Does anyone have WSW criteria on hand for NWS CAE? I'm looking for guidance with criteria similar to this page for FFC.
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An official product out of CAE that I have seen (not sure if it's public yet) has up to .4 inches of ZR accumulation for the CAE region proper. So that's well past the criteria I know of off hand.
 
DopplerWx said:
best guess for clt metro:

T - .5" snow -> 1-3" sleet -> .10 frz rain on top.
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I’m gonna be bullish and say 1-2” of snow because I think that FGEN band is gonna give a good quick thump with good rates. 1-2” of sleet, maybe higher. As for ZR, I’ll say right about .25” around far SE Union County decreasing to .1” towards northern Mecklenburg
 
Shawn said:
An official product out of CAE that I have seen (not sure if it's public yet) has up to .4 inches of ZR accumulation for the CAE region proper. So that's well past the criteria I know of off hand.
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My guess is that the criteria is similar to FFC, with .25" of ice being warning-level. I'd expect a watch extended into Lexington and Richland given that there's a decent chance we see 0.1 - 0.25" ZR that far south.
 
FamouslyHot said:
My guess is that the criteria is similar to FFC, with .25" of ice being warning-level. I'd expect a watch extended into Lexington and Richland given that there's a decent chance we see 0.1 - 0.25" ZR that far south.
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Their official website product already shows 0.25 in the forecast. So, these other ones I speak of may or may not be used in the mainstream public and are the worst case scenarios... or preemptive graphics if needed instead of having to make them later.
 
Update from Memphis:


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1100 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022

.UPDATE...

A nice and quiet morning across the Mid-South, minus all the
phone calls. 06Z model guidance continues to advertise a
smorgasboard of solutions with respect to the winter storm that is
about 30 hours away. The good news, however, is that hi-res
ensemble data is nearly at our fingertips. The hope is to upgrade
some portion of the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning
with this afternoon`s package. For now, the current forecast
looks to be in line with last night`s 00Z data, with the brunt of
the snowfall occurring along the I-40 corridor in west Tennessee.

The main forecast concern today will be with where the
deformation zone sets up. This is where the best lift, shear, and
moisture overlap and produce intense snowfall rates. This zone
tends to set up in bands, of which there could be several tomorrow
night and into Sunday morning. Areas in the deformation zone have
the potential to see serious impacts, due to much higher snowfall
amounts. Hi-res data should help to sort our the highest
confidence region soon.

The current forecast is on track with no major changes needed at
this time.
 
Does WeatherBell have more data from the UKMET than pivotal? I'd love to get a Kuchera Map, Sleet Map, and FRZ RN map. Pivotal only has 10:1 snow maps and temperature.
 
packfan98 said:
Does WeatherBell have more data from the UKMET than pivotal? I'd love to get a Kuchera Map, Sleet Map, and FRZ RN map. Pivotal only has 10:1 snow maps and temperature.
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No, WeatherBell just has very minimal UKMET output.

Edit: I emailed them about it a long time ago. They used to have all of the UKMET output several years ago but it got very costly so they decided to drop it. That is a head scratcher as the UKMET is one of the best models out there.
 
It was mentioned earlier about an obs thread but as for now as we've done with recent events, all post specific to this system, including observations, will stay in this thread. It keeps it simple, also easier to moderate..... with that in mind, this place will be extremely busy so all one liner, off topic, this model sucks, how much for me, snow chasing, does Mack's chair still have snow comments will be deleted fairly quickly. Help us help you, use the whamby/banter thread and use this for storm specific info only, please and thank you
 
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