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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

While most modeling seems to have a general consensus on amounts, p-type, etc, this like any other storm we track in the south is going to be more than 12 hours and below event. There is just so many small features that some modeling isn't picking up on yet. And still so many unknowns in regards to the strength of the CAD and the low pressure and ULL that could possibly bring in some backend stuff.
 
I still like Boone but man does the Canadian suite give me pause. Don’t have to decide until tomorrow morning but prepping as if I am going. Need to feel good about chance for 18”

We have chased in this area and would stay at the same place between Boone and Blowing Rock, confirmed they have some heavy equipment for clearing out to 321.
 
Current National Blend of Models (NMB), not a bad depiction of that frozen precip "footprint" although zr probably on the low side

1642528800-IQ3oafXyCtA.png

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Just passing this on; GSP to do a noon live facebook on the correct way to measure snow and ice; video will be available after; might be cool to watch.
 
NWMSGuy said:
Thinking Memphis will need to expand their Watch area south if these short term models continue to trend south of the TN/MS border.
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I feel like most of north Mississippi will have an advisory, I think this system is definitely a tricky one to forecast, would hate to be in their shoes, but Memphis is normally spot on with their forecast.
 
Met does NBM have a sleet or is sleet the Flat Ice: Figure Flat Ice has to be frzng Rn.
 
metwannabe said:
Still tracks the low inland but not a bad eastward shift with frozen precip

View attachment 105470
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Yes, seems to be a slight eastward shift on most of the modeling this morning that is encouraging. We’ll see what happens! Seems the models are converting to a more sensible level SLP track, too (not over central NC through the wedge).
 
ryan1234 said:
While most modeling seems to have a general consensus on amounts, p-type, etc, this like any other storm we track in the south is going to be more than 12 hours and below event. There is just so many small features that some modeling isn't picking up on yet. And still so many unknowns in regards to the strength of the CAD and the low pressure and ULL that could possibly bring in some backend stuff.
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Something to note about the backend possibilities… the GFS has actually done really well in the past of catching onto backside snow when it ends up materializing in the Carolinas. February 2014 and January 2016 both come to mind, and I think December 2018…just something to watch
 
JtSmarts said:
CAE is doing their Facebook live at 3:30
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That's around when they will issue the watches etc. 3-4 pm usually for em'. Probably doing the live to explain to people what it means as it's being issued.
 
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