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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

chapelhillwx said:
I will eat my hat if it is 18 degrees at GSP and 24 at ATL at 12z Sunday like the WRF-ARW shows. Still even if it's a few degrees too cold, could be sniffing out that the CAD will be stronger than we thought.
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Good point.

And, we're going to test the ICON's so-called warm bias too.
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griteater said:
I think there are a few things that will help precip wise in this case:

1. Low transfer occurs in Bama as opposed to E TN
2. Wave is going negative tilt
3. Strong and closed 850mb low is oriented in such a manner that the typically reliable overrunning forcing builds in nicely (seen here)

Of course, all of those things are a net negative with respect to temperatures aloft (warming)

0o10rdR.gif
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So what makes this time any different than storms of the past? Usually the high is retreating and WAA takes over and we end up with eroding CAD and lower totals with rain mixing in….

What makes this trend more towards ice this time? I would think we end up like normal climo would suggest, of course I am not the most knowledgeable when it comes to reading models.
 
tucker said:
Question for someone smarter than me: At what point do we look at radar returns vs what's modeled (HRRR)?

I assume this will help with nowcasting, but the returns do look to have a larger precip shield.
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If you are crazy enough to be on this weather board, you are never allowed to look at radar....only modeled output! I kid of course. Never a bad thing to compare actual conditions with the forecast
 
SouthGarnerSleet said:
So the 4-6k foot elevations of NC are getting an ice storm now? yeah... no. I dont buy this one bit.

Also, this will be a steady to heavy rain = these totals are wayyy overdone.
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As he said above these totals are already taking into account runoff, temps, and rates. The NWS totals and locations mimic these totals in most areas so they're quite believable.
 
tucker said:
Question for someone smarter than me: At what point do we look at radar returns vs what's modeled (HRRR)?

I assume this will help with nowcasting, but the returns do look to have a larger precip shield.
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You can look at atmospheric returns over the mid-west and Dakotas probably later tonight and within 24 hours start observing the actually radar returns and temps...Meso portal gonna be a big on for this one|

SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis

www.spc.noaa.gov
 
TigerSnow said:
So what makes this time any different than storms of the past? Usually the high is retreating and WAA takes over and we end up with eroding CAD and lower totals with rain mixing in….

What makes this trend more towards ice this time? I would think we end up like normal climo would suggest, of course I am not the most knowledgeable when it comes to reading models.
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It's really just a thing where this setup is better than normal cold air damming wise. The surface high hangs on pretty well over the NE (the ocean low running up the coast helps some as the high tucks in behind that feature, preventing it from scooting out to sea). But more importantly, the source region over the NE and down into VA is pretty cold and dry, seen here with the single digit and below zero dewpoints in VA (a good benchmark). Having this in January helps as well, prime climo for cold. The damming does get eroded on the SE flank though as the wave goes negative tilt

DcpMSyx.png
 
griteater said:
It's really just a thing where this setup is better than normal cold air damming wise. The surface high hangs on pretty well over the NE (the ocean low running up the coast helps some as the high tucks in behind that feature, preventing it from scooting out to sea). But more importantly, the source region over the NE and down into VA is pretty cold and dry, seen here with the single digit and below zero dewpoints in VA (a good benchmark). Having this in January helps as well, prime climo for cold. The damming does get eroded on the SE flank though as the wave goes negative tilt

DcpMSyx.png
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Thanks for that explanation. I guess I am hoping to saved here North of Charlotte by sleet… Still worrisome for some road issues on Monday but hopefully the power won’t be a big issue.
 
Don’t remember the Greensboro met on here saying qpf won’t be an issue a couple days ago but it’s clearly an issue now for some in the west and north. Still a lot but some models have reduced by as much as 60%!
 
iGRXY said:
Still wonder if the HRW suite of models have a cold bias in the upper atmosphere. Those temps are definitely a bit overdone as mid to upper 20's are going to be expected and not upper teens but if there isn't a cold bias above 2m then add that to the HRRR, 3K, and Euro.
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I am absolutely hugging those for the upstate, some of the other were looking pretty bleak. Interstingly enough, the GFS has been trending better for the upstate but still... 3k and long range HRRR looked good, I wish we could cash out on those.
 
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