Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[malak05]

This really is a battle of just exactly where that low heads and just how much backside precip forms for anyone Atlanta Westward

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Of concern the 6z Hires Euro has now reduced the storm to 4 hours of precipitation over most of western NC. Just 2 days ago models were depicting a 18 hour event

That’s just not true at all. It’s way more than 4

 

[Snowflowxxl]

The HRW NSSL is cold cold. Overdone for sure. Has ATL as 26 degrees ?

 

[SnowNiner]

This is the highest resolution in the free world! lol

Nice! If I can get 4 hours of moderate snow in the 20s before the inevitable switch over to ice, I'll take that as a legit win for this storm. Glad the 3k and the HRRR show a front end thump. Hopefully that hangs on.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

This is a joke

 

[Myfrotho704_]

These FRAM maps are even intimidating and the account for runoff/temps/rates

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Update on my thinking, much shorter duration of snow for the mtns, 4-8” and 3-6” foothills, 1-3” just east of there, also less ice due to quick hitting rates I think .25” around Charlotte.

 

[FortMillSCWx]

If you read the the next part it says that it's likely overdone due to runoff.

I meant to highlight that part as well. Runoff is likely with heaviest precip, but mid 20's and a building meso high may argue against?

 

[BirdManDoomW]

These FRAM maps are even intimidating and the account for runoff/temps/rates View attachment 105427View attachment 105428

True but we say that every year and they never verify along the blue ridge.

 

[griteater]

Looks like a good representation here on the 3km NAM of surface temperatures and transfer of the low from central Bama to the coast. 06z Euro and 12z 3km NAM both ticked south which are 'good' for both temperatures and precip shield. Cold air works SW in damming fashion

 

[SimeonNC]

Imo, it's looking more likely that CLT and the immediate NW burbs are gonna be saved by sleet, even the WPC seems to have the worst of the ZR just south and east of CLT.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I beg your pardon?!

 

[malak05]

Both HRW-WRF, RAP, HRRR, Euro, RDP have the lows eventually in the panhandle further East and then slowly transferring NE
NAM seems to want to take the low right up the AL/GA border due N with the low before transferring later.

 

[NCSNOW]

Of concern the 6z Hires Euro has now reduced the storm to 4 hours of precipitation over most of western NC. Just 2 days ago models were depicting a 18 hour event

I documented all the qpf outputs for models and all the latest where above1.0 except ukmet was down to .9.
You are correct, just 30 hours ago they all where 1.5-2.0 heer in the Triad and uniform back to the ridge line

My expierence with transfers is we always end up less than modeled qpf. I'll be suprised with more than .75 qpf north of 40 from Asheville to Burlington

 

[ajr]

These FRAM maps are even intimidating and the account for runoff/temps/rates View attachment 105427View attachment 105428

Why is there more ice showing up in the mountains vs spots slightly east (e.g., around Hickory area)

 

[jrips27]

Well this would be bad lol

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Why is there more ice showing up in the mountains vs spots slightly east (e.g., around Hickory area)

Wedge erodes top down not bottom up. Strongest near the surface. Hickory is lower and snug in the heart of cad. Boone is on the edge and any wind gust could send them soaring.

 

[Avalanche]

Both HRW-WRF, RAP, HRRR, Euro, RDP have the lows eventually in the panhandle further East and then slowly transferring NE
NAM seems to want to take the low right up the AL/GA border due N with the low before transferring later.

Save CAD for a bit longer.

 

[Broken024]

I beg your pardon?! View attachment 105430View attachment 105431

Don't fall for it. These WRF models are a trap. Every single time.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Don't fall for it. These WRF models are a trap. Every single time.

No I know they’re cold biased but always interesting to look at. They usually do well with temp profiles when you get really close to the event