Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[NWMSGuy]

Looks like my county was not included in the Winter Storm Watch from Memphis this morning. It seems that most models have had the brunt of accumulations North. Now with HRRR showing south I'm starting to think I may be in a good spot for now. Haven't been in the bullseye yet regarding this system. Time will tell!

 

[iGRXY]

At 42 the NAM is starting to show more dynamic cooling than previous runs.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Ray with a morning update

 

[SimeonNC]

View attachment 105403CAD is filtering in a bit more.

The 12z almost looks like a banana high. I wonder what would happen if that were to set up.

 

[njbarrineau]

It's precarious relying on dynamic cooling to get snow especially when you're not under the cold core upper level low....wouldn't put too much into the HRRR for now.

Yup! When dynamic cooling faces the warm nose, I hardly ever remember it winning.


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[DopplerWx]

by 45 snow is gone from the upstate thru clt and it is all sleet. only snow is western nc at 48.

 

[BufordWX]

3km Nam

 

[iGRXY]

I am looking at my locations sounding at 45-51 and one thing I am noticing is the warm nose is actually a lot less. It is so close to a snow sounding.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Still sold that the NAM12km is underselling the front end snow, you can see it does show the process of dynamical cooling better this run though

 

[jrips27]

3K NAM has a stronger wedge in North Georgia. Gainesville is at 28 with ZR at 10am Sunday. Yeesh

 

[iGRXY]

3K now looks like the EURO and HRRR

 

[RollTide18]

The low tracks through Central Alabama this time on the NAM this a less impressive wraparound snow.

 

[jrips27]

Definitely up near the city

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

Of concern the 6z Hires Euro has now reduced the storm to 4 hours of precipitation over most of western NC. Just 2 days ago models were depicting a 18 hour event

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nam 3km shows this well. Wouldn’t shock me if there’s a quick 1-3 of snow along 85

 

[iGRXY]

In fact the 3K Nam actually has around 9 hours of snow before switching over for the northern upstate along 85

 

[MSnowAtl]

Definitely up near the cityView attachment 105416

This is going to continue in future runs...don't ever underestimate a CAD!

 

[iGRXY]

In fact the 3K Nam actually has around 9 hours of snow before switching over for the northern upstate along 85

It finally switches over to sleet by noon but this is what was picked up on the front end. This is the Kuchera as well.

 

[Metwannabe]

3k NAM major winter storm for all of Central NC, most of SC as well, even has zr all the way to the coast at the onset

 

[TheBatman]

The low tracks through Central Alabama this time on the NAM this a less impressive wraparound snow.

It’s still works out ok.