Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[iGRXY]

Just a hair weaker and slightly further south than 6z.

 

[Storm5]

I meant how reliable is HRRR within roughly 48 hrs or less???

No very. It's good 18 hours in


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[MSnowAtl]

Well this is different. Hello front end frozen.


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Down to airport too! I think this is going to expand further southeast.

 

[GaSnowhound]

Not very. Does better inside 12 hours

I was thinking it was very short range. I’ll take the NAM at this point and hope for continued southern slide and later left turn w a hopeful underdone CAD in place!

 

[Shawn]

im surprised CAE has no advisories?

Around 3PM today; probably.

 

[ATLwxfan]

What could go wrong for the North Atlanta burbs lolView attachment 105399

Not sure. I’m in Alpharetta and it really could be anything between 0 - and 4 inches. It’s the ice accretion that we obviously hope to avoid.


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[Storm5]

The hrrr is south but it's gonna turn corner . It's crap at 48 hours anyway . Two years ago I had 6 inches plus showing from 48 down to 30 hours and ended up with nothing


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[GaSnowhound]

Generally it’s not in its wheelhouse yet, but when it’s matching the Euro so closely it certainly has some validity

Yeah, I was wondering if Euro and to a some degree NAM might add weight to the possibility.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

View attachment 105400
Just a hair weaker and slightly further south than 6z.

Let’s watch what the kicker does here

 

[LovingGulfLows]

It's precarious relying on dynamic cooling to get snow especially when you're not under the cold core upper level low....wouldn't put too much into the HRRR for now.

 

[WxGSO]

Watching the little finger of snow in N NC on Saturday afternoon. Might be a nice little teaser for many.

 

[GaSnowhound]

The hrrr is south but it's gonna turn corner . It's crap at 48 hours anyway . Two years ago I had 6 inches plus showing from 48 down to 30 hours and ended up with nothing


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I know this has been discussed to some degree previously but how soon will models have a better handle on how the second wave dropping dwn will effect our current system re “where the left turn occurs”? I’m assuming us Ga and maybe Nc/SC folks prefer farther east….

 

[iGRXY]

NAM is a little further south and the High is a little stronger with a bit more CAD at 33.

 

[GaSnowhound]

It's precarious relying on dynamic cooling to get snow especially when you're not under the cold core upper level low....wouldn't put too much into the HRRR for now.

Gulf, how well do you think the modeling is handling the LP at this pt? Eg. Do you buy the more southerly track and also do you buy the N turn thru Ga vs farther east thru Carolina? I’m interested in how the next incoming wave may or may not be effecting the modeling.

 

[SD]

Watching the little finger of snow in N NC on Saturday afternoon. Might be a nice little teaser for many.

Me too. Didn't your area over perform with a similar finger around valentines day in 2014 or 2015?

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Gulf, how well do you think the modeling is handling the LP at this pt? Eg. Do you buy the more southerly track and also do you buy the N turn thru Ga vs farther east thru Carolina? I’m interested in how the next incoming wave may or may not be effecting the modeling.

To me it really depends on the strength of the wedge come verification. The stronger the wedge, the more likely, you'll see a track further south verifiy and vice versa.

 

[iGRXY]

CAD is filtering in a bit more.

 

[WxGSO]

Me too. Didn't your area over perform with a similar finger around valentines day in 2014 or 2015?

I can't keep up with last year's weather, let alone back in 2014/2015..ha! Yes, we've had a few surprises over the years and there are occasionally some out of the blue snows.

 

[WEATHERBOYROY]

NAM is a little further south and the High is a little stronger with a bit more CAD at 33.

Those dry dewpoints can sometimes dry out more of the storm than you like....and too much warm moist gulf air can sometimes bring more heat than you like...but...the 93 blizzard definitely had plenty of gulf moisture. Not quite the same dynamics here...at least not modelled

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Soundings (at least on pivotal) indicate rain for the pretty color areas thru town) 850s show at 1C, so it makes sense.

It's precarious relying on dynamic cooling to get snow especially when you're not under the cold core upper level low....wouldn't put too much into the HRRR for now.

I would love for this to be wrong, but there's not much room 'twixt the DPs & 2m temps here. 33/32 & rain.