I think the key for CLT metro is how strong and how far to the east that initial FGEN band is. The Euro has been steadfast on all of CLT metro, including southern and eastern parts, getting in on that for at least several hours… and with some pretty good rates. This is something that the 3kmNam has trouble picking up on at this range. The HRRR does a great job on picking up on it, so we’ll need to see if it begins matching the Euro as it comes into better range later today
IIRC they were still overdone but not nearly as much so as we've seen previously, we had some 40-50 mph wind gust with that one. So I'd say about as accurate with it as I'd seen them
It really is tough to say. I do know from watching these storms over the years, the times that CLT metro has gotten in on back end snowfall has been systems that are deepening quickly and producing a lot of wind… both of which appears to be the case here.
Brad P. Snow the sleet/freezing rain back to snow. Are y’all buying snow on the backend?
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I’ve always heard these are a bit overstated, but I recorded a TS plus gust (52) but some of the short range hi-res models didn’t show me over 30
Rain would be pretty cold in the mid 20s
Just me or is it more south than other models?
It is.
Way south. Just compare the composite reflectivity maps of the 12z HRRR at 6z Sunday to the 6m NAM 3k run. NAM has precip way up in TN while HRRR barely hits the southern TN border.
MUCH more south than the 6Z 3K NAM was at the same time frame. The 12Z NAM is running though, so lets see if this chnages or not
Yeah, that band tomorrow across northern NC literally dries up as it moves east due to the very low DPs starting to dive south into NE NC.
