Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[Cary_Snow95]

A trend to watch is the northern energy coming down into the plains to tilt our storm. It has trended north the last three runs on the NAM. And as someone pointed out this energy is still out over the pacific until tomorrow morning

 

[HSVweather]

3km NAM 06Z over Madison county, AL at 9 am Sunday. What kind of precipitation rates is needed to bring the colder air down, dynamic cooling?

 

[Metwannabe]

As we know most of these are probably overdone, however, as we also saw with the system back in first part of January, a mature low like this can realize it's full wind potential and with ice on trees..... so even if you knock 10 or so off of these still going to be problematic

 

[griteater]

View attachment 1053723km NAM 06Z over Madison county, AL at 9 am Sunday. What kind of precipitation rates is needed to bring the colder air down, dynamic cooling?

Anything more than just light precip would do it. Warm layer at the sfc is very shallow there

 

[Metwannabe]

Keeping a close eye on short range models as the day progresses, 3k NAM showing warning criteria for ice accrual pretty far east into the Carolina's
(still zr in most locations at end of it's run)

 

[DopplerWx]

06z suite continuing the trends of minimal to no front end snow for clt. Likely a sleet fest. Blech. Better than freezing rain I guess.

 

[Chazwin]

Also, isn't there a point where ice will no longer accrue even if its

I don’t know about that, but to me the biggest thing on the ICE maps is while I think that there will be an area that sees .5-.75” accrual, it will be in a much more narrow corridor than what’s being shown. I really think that northern and western parts of what’s being shown on those maps will see sleet be the dominant precip… and quite bit of it

 

[wake4est]

Keeping a close eye on short range models as the day progresses, 3k NAM showing warning criteria for ice accrual pretty far east into the Carolina's
(still zr in most locations at end of it's run)

So is the precip just to the NW of the darker pink falling as sleet then, since the axis of heavier ZR seems to be further east?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The euro actually came in stronger with wedging

 

[Metwannabe]

Also, isn't there a point where ice will no longer accrue even if its

It there isn't a continuous feed of cold dry air then yes due to latent heat release zr can be self limiting, obviously once temps inch above 32. Also temps around 31 or 32 with heavy rates aren't going to accrue as much either, several factors can affect ice accrual.

 

[Metwannabe]

So is the precip just to the NW of the darker pink falling as sleet then, since the axis of heavier ZR seems to be further east?

Yes, most likely

 

[Downeastnc]

Keeping a close eye on short range models as the day progresses, 3k NAM showing warning criteria for ice accrual pretty far east into the Carolina's
(still zr in most locations at end of it's run)

This is still 40-48 hrs out for us....there will be some tweaks down the stretch, whether it be good or bad for us. I still think it corrects south and east some as the models really turn the corner fast with this storm....this seems overdone to me. Also the globals are usually to quick to kill the wedge and we are already seeing hints ( 3k Nam ) that the wedge may hold longer etc....all in all I think I get more than what the models show but not nearly enough to get excited over.....not really a fan of ice storms, a little in the trees is nice to look at but beyond that its just the most useless winter ptype ever so less is fine with me.....

 

[wake4est]

Yes, most likely

Thanks. So many models are really showing very little sleet so this is interesting to see on the 3k.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Brad P. Snow the sleet/freezing rain back to snow. Are y’all buying snow on the backend?


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[Metwannabe]

Thanks. So many models are really showing very little sleet so this is interesting to see on the 3k.

If you look at soundings as opposed to just the snowfall maps I think you will see many models are actually in fact showing quite a bit of IP.

 

[ForsythSnow]

As we know most of these are probably overdone, however, as we also saw with the system back in first part of January, a mature low like this can realize it's full wind potential and with ice on trees..... so even if you knock 10 or so off of these still going to be problematic

Any idea how these models performed with the last storm? I feel like the nws was way under while we got those 40 to 50 mph gusts while they called for weaker.

 

[DopplerWx]

Brad P. Snow the sleet/freezing rain back to snow. Are y’all buying snow on the backend?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Likely better chance of us getting snow on the backend than front.

 

[WFFaithful]

A trend to watch is the northern energy coming down into the plains to tilt our storm. It has trended north the last three runs on the NAM. And as someone pointed out this energy is still out over the pacific until tomorrow morningView attachment 105369

We want separation?

 

[TigerSnow]

Looks to be more borderline for the North Charlotte area now after the overnights. With the normal game time trends we might end up with a cold rain. I guess sleet is not the worst thing in the world.

 

[Downeastnc]

We want separation?

Yes that wave catching up is what causes the sudden sharp north turn....