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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

The map Jill uses is a graphic from weatherbell. I’m wanting to know what graphic that is.
similar to this 500 mb humidity
1642323600-CEhMUHomHYI.png
 
Did the low go into the gulf
I didn't look at the surface, but the UKMET has the 500Mb low the farthest south and east of all of the 00z models so far. It's placement might force me to wait to see if the EURO follows suit.

I'll take my chances with the thermals with this look here.
500hv.conus.png
 
Wow don't know what say about that NAM run. The long range NAM can be off its rocker but I can't believe what its been doing in MS/AL/TN; and man that was a disaster for the upstate. Heck, even the GFS was better there.
This model suite appears to be more amped and warmer overall. I do not like the trends this afternoon and evening.
 
NAM has 850 below 0C for North Ga at hours 54 and 66. Wouldnt that mean a thump of heavy snow at the beginning of precip ?
 
Funny you mention this. I was wondering what it would take for this to happen. Looking for anything besides a -NAO to do it.
Stronger that ocean low gets, the more it could back up the flow behind it just a bit as it moves up into the Canadian Maritimes, and then forces the next shortwave rolling thru the Great Lakes to slow down and adjust a little south. Likely fantasy land, but crazy things can happen out over the Gulf Stream
 
Looks like it may be digging a bit more and a bit further south compared to 18z at hr 33, though I am splitting very fine hairs. Strength is the same.

EDIT: Surface features appear a tad north at hr 39? I am not good at predicting where this stuff is going, though, LOL...I imagine it isn't going to significantly differ from the 18z run, though.

Four-contour closed off ULL at hr 51. Oof, it's going to be a hell of a storm, but I figure there's going to be a hell of a lot of WAA to contend with. I'd suspect it's going to be a bit warmer than last run above the surface.
 
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