ForsythSnow
Moderator
Colder as well with the CAD but not sure how much that matters. What it might tell us though is that the models are just all wobbling everywhere so nothing is set.
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Icon and RDPS are crippling ice storms in the Midlands; Still. Something's gotta give here with these models vs the GFS with the CAD/temperatures.
And the 3KM NAM is a substantial threat.
So far the only model that has shown a possible trend away from a bigger icing event is the Euro's 18z.. rest have been locked (besides gfs)
And the 3KM NAM is a substantial threat.
So far the only model that has shown a possible trend away from a bigger icing event is the Euro's 18z.. rest have been locked (besides gfs)
RGEM is the model to hug for Atlanta folks.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
What the RDPS did was increase totals in MS, TN, and GA. This is a true model tug of war.
Lol I was just about to post the same thing. That’s our golden ticket. Been pretty consistent on that front end thump
griteater
Member
GFS is a big outlier. Hard to imagine it being in the ballpark with surface temperatures/dewpoints
Could be, but a lot in the red circle could be drizzle or ice pellets due to lack of DGZ moisture. Just a guess though, haven’t looked at soundings.
Attachments
And it worries me because my local office seem to love the GFS while our neighbors in FFC seem to think differently. I just don't want the elderly/sick/hospitals etc to "not see it coming".
Nomanslandva
Member
The Canadian family stuff has not looked great for us the last several runs.
Clem282340
Member
This looks like the euro
The key feature that turns our system to the NE is this shortwave dropping into the Dakota's Sunday which winds up phasing with our ULL. If that guy is just a bit flatter there and or slower that NE turn through Georgia happens further east.
That feature is still out in the Pacific south of Alaska ATT.
That feature is still out in the Pacific south of Alaska ATT.
??
It’s been pretty consistent but I guess it doesn’t matter if you’re consistently bad, just ask Matt Rhule. I think the best way to over perform with this event wrt snow is to get under that band depicted by the super hi-res modeling.
Now here is an interesting one FWIW. The
WRF ARW has snow breaking out at 00z. Major outlier, but still interesting.
WRF ARW has snow breaking out at 00z. Major outlier, but still interesting.
dsaur
Member
The cad was constantly refreshed the whole time. That's what I've noticed about these ice storms and sleet storms due to cad, or rain turning to sleet...it's being refresh the while time, and the temps don't waver much...not lagging. The warm nose assault team . And that storm was a big one. Inches. You usually don't get a big gom low bring inches of precip, and not have the warm nose messing with it....when it's borderline temps. That storm was zr all the whole time, and accretion rates were amazing. With cad snow/sleet you can be out sledding at 2am and it's snow/sleet, then rain,zr, then rain/sleet, and back to snow/ip. Always on the edge. That's why I like to bring a gulf low right into deep cold in situ. Takes out the guess work, lol. I guess not as much fun for Mr. Abacus though
Extracted data from the icon.
Is this enough to support a solid CAD 
Showmeyourtds
Member
Stupid gradient here...2 inches at Agnes Scott....8 inches at Perimeter Mall. Roughly 11 miles as the crow flies.What the RDPS did was increase totals in MS, TN, and GA. This is a true model tug of war.
To be fair, this model is normally garbage...but hell, it could be fun, right?