• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

griteater said:
Final frames

zFWbbFc.gif
Click to expand...

Oooh that dry slot.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Really shows that dynamical cooling temporarily offsetting the warm nose in December 2018 fashion
Click to expand...
I was just about to compare it to that storm. The big difference is that it looks like we have a dryer airmass in place and that the wintry precip should be much further south.
 
malak05 said:
NAM3k and NAM aren't exactly In agreement. You can see a good bit more ice extending westward on 3k and quicker transition to snow in this frame by comparison. The 3k temp profiles maybe have different outlook on cold and cad
Click to expand...
In fact it sorta pinches from East further Ice Penetration into GA and from West further quicker Snow Transition
 
You really gotta watch it with deep closed lows like this. Very tricky

Yes, the warm tongue aloft can be fierce, but for the precip nearest to the upper level low center, the lift and instability can sometimes be intense enough that you can easily and unexpectedly flip over to those muffin-sized flakes that survive through that above freezing layer.

Also wouldn't sleep on the wraparound snows either. These deep closed ULL are good at trapping moisture on the west side of a system and it can take forever to ring out.
 
NorthDFWwx said:
You really gotta watch it with deep closed lows like this. Very tricky

Yes, the warm tongue aloft can be fierce, but for the precip nearest to the upper level low center, the lift and instability can sometimes be intense enough that you can easily and unexpectedly flip over to those muffin-sized flakes that survive through that above freezing layer.

Also wouldn't sleep on the wraparound snows either. These deep closed ULL are good at trapping moisture on the west side of a system and it can take forever to ring out.
Click to expand...
GSP mentioned this in their disco this afternoon too.
 
Nomanslandva said:
I am not in love with the look of the primary low hanging on that long into west TN. Classic to get cut off over here.
Click to expand...
Carolina split. Miller B or transfers are notorious for making that phrase famous here. Usually its from a Ky to Norfolk latitude transfer
 
NorthDFWwx said:
You really gotta watch it with deep closed lows like this. Very tricky

Yes, the warm tongue aloft can be fierce, but for the precip nearest to the upper level low center, the lift and instability can sometimes be intense enough that you can easily and unexpectedly flip over to those muffin-sized flakes that survive through that above freezing layer.

Also wouldn't sleep on the wraparound snows either. These deep closed ULL are good at trapping moisture on the west side of a system and it can take forever to ring out.
Click to expand...

I said the same a few days ago. I said we need to watch the ULL closely because in these types of events, models might not have a good handle of how much snow there could be associated with it until close to verification. You can already see models pumping up the snow amounts in MS/AL with the backside comma head and it's looking VERY healthy on the NAM. Lots of vigorous rotation with this upper level low so moisture can definitely wrap around the west of it which would prolong snow.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top