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Pattern Jammin' January

Storm5 said:
PV definitely gonna be further NE this run
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better look for the midsouth wont overly suppress stroms ... western areas speaking of.
 
PV headed NE by 180 . Gonna be some wild swings over the coming days as models try and find the correct placement with the PV .
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It’s a cold run still but I don’t think we get 0s on this run. As far south


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lol this run is a good indicator of how much the GFS can flip. Energy that was entering in California on the 18z instead enters from British Columbia this time.
 
So what has happened today for the models to start showing more agreement and consistency with the scope and intensity of this coming Polar blast? What factors changed from 24 hours ago where every 6 hours, a different scenario was almost guaranteed. I know @Webberweather53, @1300m , @GaWx and others have been telling us this for seemingly weeks now but the models are figuring it out, just now. Why? Was it the stratospheric warming episode, the faster moving MJO (forecasted to go near COD 8) or some other variable?
 
DixieBlizzard said:
So what has happened today for the models to start showing more agreement and consistency with the scope and intensity of this coming Polar blast? What factors changed from 24 hours ago where every 6 hours, a different scenario was almost guaranteed. I know @Webberweather53, @1300, @GaWx and others have been telling us this for seemingly weeks now but the models are figuring it out, just now. Why? Was it the stratospheric warming episode, the faster moving MJO (forecasted to go near COD 8) or some other variable?
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For the most part the models are slowly getting the timing right. We are getting out of the long range and finally getting in the mid range. Before the models were having a hard time figuring out the the pattern change. Now they seem to have the pattern change and are able to start on some details. Still a ways out but they have stopped "kicking the can down the road". Lot will change but as we get closer the more details they can pickup on. Again those knowing more please correct me if I am missing it.
 
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